Bold Predictions mid-season review: Who is playing better or worse than predicted?

Before the season began our Jays Journal writers put together some bold predictions about the 2025 season. We released a full-length article about Alejandro Kirk becoming a top five catcher earlier this week. We’ll flesh out the rest of the predictions in this article and see how accurate they are halfway through the season.

Bold Predictions mid-season review

Prediction: Bo Bichette will have a 30/30 season

Reasoning for the prediction:
Bichette was tearing the cover off the ball in spring training and was going into 2025 fully healthy after a down year in 2024. He was also entering the season with his impending free agency being a big talking point around camp. The thought was Bichette would be looking to have an explosive year to maximize his value in free agency.

Performance at the halfway point:
Bichette is having a good year, slashing .272/.311/.427 with a 104 OPS+. However, he is far away from displaying the kind of power and speed one needs to reach the 30/30 mark. Bichette has 11 home runs and four stolen bases to this point of the year.

Can this still come to fruition:
According to FanGraphs, Bichette is on pace for 17 home runs and nine stolen bases. It will take a monster second half for him to reach just one of those numbers. However, he is also on pace to finish with a .286/.330/.444 slash line with a BABIP of .327 and a 120 wRC+; which is a fine season for the 27-year-old.

Prediction: Max Scherzer will be an All-Star

Reasoning for the prediction:
Scherzer was coming into the season fully healthy, or so we thought. He had posted a career 3.16 ERA in the first half of the season and was coming into a situation where he was expected to lead by example and play a prominent role on the Blue Jays staff.

Performance at the halfway point:
Scherzer has thrown just 13 innings this season in three starts. He has 12 strikeouts but has allowed seven runs on 12 hits.

Can this still come to fruition:
Unfortunately, Scherzer’s nagging thumb injury derailed any chance of the future Hall of Fame pitcher getting to this year’s All-Star game.

Prediction: Will Wagner will be a breakout star

Reason for the prediction:
Wagner was generating a lot of buzz among Blue Jays brass and fans as he hit .305 with two home runs and 11 RBI in 24 games with Toronto. All of that occurred after he was acquired from the Houston Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi trade.

Performance at the halfway point:
Wagner is hitting just .200 with no home runs in 22 games with the Blue Jays. He started the season with the big-league club but was demoted before the end of April.

Can this still come to fruition:
Wagner rejoined the Blue Jays at the end of June and is starting to show signs of having a better approach at the plate. He’s picked up three hits and has three walks in the four games he has appeared in (going into Friday’s games). However, it will take a big second half for him to be considered a true break out star as he’ll likely see limited playing time being behind Addison Barger on the depth chart.

Prediction: Jeff Hoffman will be a bust

Reason for the prediction:
While Hoffman was coming off a career year with the Philadelphia Phillies, some teams decided not to sign him due to some of his medicals not passing their internal tests. He also had only become a closer last year and there was concern that he could continue to lock down games.

Performance at the halfway point:
When Hoffman has been on, he has been elite. In 16.1 innings pitched in March and April he had a 1.10 ERA with 23 strikeouts and only two earned runs allowed. He was 3-0 with six saves. Since May 26, Hoffman went 2-0 with 10 saves in 16 games. He thew 14 innings giving up just four earned runs with 16 strikeouts and a 2.57 ERA with one blown save.

Can this still come to fruition:
For the Blue Jays sake, hopefully not, but Hoffman did have a blip in May in which he was below average. In 12 games, he went 1-2 with seven saves and three blown saves, with a whopping 13.50 ERA, giving up 15 earned runs, five home runs and six walks in 10 innings, although he did rack up 14 strikeouts. If he can harness what he did before and after May, this prediction should be nothing but a distant memory.

Prediction: Biggest surprise Nathan Lukes

Reason for the prediction:
Nathan Lukes was having a great spring training for the third year in a row and with Daulton Varsho starting the year on the injured list, Lukes could come in as a left-handed hitting outfielder.

Performance at the halfway point:
Nathan Lukes broke camp with the team and outside of an injury in the second week of June, he has been a stable on the big-league club. He’s slashing .260/.360/.320 with a .720 OPS, four home runs and an even 22 walks and 22 strikeouts.  

Could this come to fruition:
Depends on what you consider a surprise. Arguably the seasons Barger or Ernie Clement are having have been the biggest surprises, but Lukes has been serviceable when called upon. He’s been worth 0.8 bWAR and is likely on his way to surpassing his 1.2 bWAR from last year.