Blue Jays Bold Prediction: Max Scherzer will be an All-Star

Max Scherzer has said that he came to Toronto to win. Will it be enough winning to help him make his ninth All-Star Game?

The three-time Cy Young winner is in 18th season this year, but hasn’t made an All-Star Game he made in 2021 as a member of the Washington Nationals.

And while he’s been a solid pitcher since (3.16 ERA over the last three seasons), it hasn’t been enough to get him to the Midsummer Classic.

With the start of spring training right around the corner, here's why we think he could end up in Atlanta this summer representing the American League. 

This story is part of a series that will be running throughout spring training highlighting our bold predictions for the Blue Jays season.

How Max Scherzer could be an All-Star in 2025 

He’s entering the season healthy

Last year, Scherzer was bitten with the injury bug and never really recovered. After helping pitch the Rangers to a World Series win in 2023, Scherzer underwent successful surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back in the offseason.

While it was always expected that the injury would impact his availability, he had a variety of stops and starts on his rehab process (including numbness in his pitching arm) that resulted not making his debut until June.

And if that wasn’t enough, he hit the IL again after eight starts due to right shoulder fatigue. He returned in September to make one more start going on the IL again with a left hamstring strain.

All that appears to be in the past now.

"Normal ramp-up kind of in the lifting, normal ramp-up in the throwing, right where I need to be in terms of my bullpen progression," he said in a news conference last week. "So I'm looking to come in here into spring training at full tilt."

Scherzer only managed to throw 43 1/3 innings last year, which is far and away the lowest mark of his career (his previous career-low in a 162-game season was 145 1/3), so he could be fresh at the start of the year. Well, as fresh as any 40-year-old starting pitcher could be. 

He starts the season strong

You don’t earn nine All-Star nods without being able to pitch wel early in the season. Along with having a career 3.16 ERA in the first half of the season, he has a 3.32 ERA in March/April, a 3.37 ERA in May and sparkling 2.75 ERA in June (his best ERA of any month).

As mentioned above, his lack of volume last season means that his arm could be fresh at the start of the season, which should also help him be at the top of his game early in the season. Scherzer’s dominance could end up being one of the biggest stories in baseball at the start of the season.

The Blue Jays can lean on their pitching depth

There’s no denying that Scherzer will break camp in the Blue Jays’ rotation so long as he’s healthy. And while there’s still some question marks at the back of the rotation, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Blue Jays end up having more than five players start a game for them in March and April.

That could end up being by design, as it might be wise to have Scherzer skip the occasional start in the hopes of helping keep his arm at full strength.

While Scherzer didn’t record enough innings to qualify for Baseball Savant percentiles last season, he would have finished in the 99th percentile in chase rate and also finished near the top of the walk and hard-hit rate rates. While he doesn’t have the same kind of fastball that he had earlier in his career (26th percentile in fastball velocity), he still has a Hall of Fame arsenal.

If the Blue Jays are smart about how they manage his workload, all of the baseball world should get to see that arsenal in the All-Star Game.