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Bold Predictions mid-season review: Alejandro Kirk will be a top five catcher

Alejandro Kirk has had a great start to the season
ByMatthew Sookram|
Jun 19, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk (30) celebrates after hitting a solo home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Jun 19, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk (30) celebrates after hitting a solo home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Before the season began, Jays Journal writers made some bold predictions for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2025. Now at the halfway point of the season, it’s time to review some of those predictions.

Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk was listed as the eighth best catcher on MLB Networks ‘Top 10 Right Now’ list in February. The top five was: William Contreras (Milwaukee), Adley Rutschman (Baltimore), Will Smith (Los Angeles Dodgers), Cal Raleigh (Seattle) and JT Realmuto (Philadelphia). This led to the prediction that Kirk could be a top five catcher in the game by the end of this season.

So far, Kirk has done everything he can to prove that prediction correctly. Going into Friday night’s game, Kirk has posted some of the best offensive and defensive statistics among all catchers in MLB. He is second in batting average (.313), third in OBP (.356), third in OPS (.789) and third in total hits (75) and his 26 strikeouts are the second lowest among all qualified catchers. Kirk’s BABIP is .324 and his 104 total bases are fifth.

While Kirk is lacking in the power department with only seven home runs, his .433 slugging percentage is fourth among catchers, and at this rate everyone in the league is lagging behind the guy who has the most home runs and just also happens to be a catcher, Cal Raleigh. But he makes up for it by being very selective and punishing balls when he gets the bat on them. Kirk has just a 10% strikeout rate which is in the top three percent of MLB, and his 56.5% hard hit rate ranks in the top two percent.  

Kirk has also come through in the clutch with some big hits in the first half of the year. From his ninth inning go-ahead double at Yankee Stadium in April, to his walk-off double against the Phillies in June, "Captain" Kirk has come through in the clutch time and time again this season, with a WPA of 1.30.

Kirk is having one of his most productive years at the plate and is well on his way to having the most productive offensive season by a catcher in Blue Jays history. This season Kirk has already produced a 2.8 fWAR, which is the fifth best mark by any Blue Jays catcher. The leader in that category is Russell Martin who produced a 4.5 fWAR in 2015.

And not to be forgotten in all this is the fact that Kirk has been one of the best players behind the dish as well, with a 16.1 defensive fWAR, just behind the leader in that category, Patrick Bailey’s 16.6. Kirk has thrown out 15 base stealers, which is tied for the third most in baseball, while his caught stealing above average ranks in the 94th percentile. He has the highest fielding run value in all of baseball, not just among catchers, according to baseball savant, with a fielding run value of 13 with his blocks above average and framing rated in the 100th percentile.

Kirk is doing everything the Blue Jays could of asked of him and more this year, in his first season after signing an extension with the Blue Jays in March. He is having a phenomenal first half of the season and well on his way to being a top five catcher in baseball.