Jeff Hoffman is back to his elite self after a small blip in May

Through the first month and a bit of Jeff Hoffman's time with the Toronto Blue Jays, he looked like one of the best signings of the offseason. Across March and April, the Blue Jays' closer posted a 1.17 ERA over 15.1 innings pitched and converted on all six of his save attempts, while racking up three wins in multi-inning outings.

Then May happened. Across 12 appearances, Hoffman managed just 10 innings of work with a 13.50 ERA, ballooning his season total from 1.17 to 6.04. This rough stretch included two outings where he recorded just one out while allowing three runs, and another where he allowed five runs, retiring just one batter. He did still record seven saves over this stretch, but the overall body of work left a lot to be desired.

Jeff Hoffman is back to his elite self after a small blip in May

This brings us to the present where, in an albeit small sample size, Hoffman appears to be back on track. In seven appearances and 5.2 innings pitched, he's put up a solid 3.18 ERA and has allowed just five base runners.

The long ball has continued to be a bit of an issue, with the only two runs he's allowed this month coming off solo shots. Aside from that, he's starting to look much more like the guy the Blue Jays brought in to replace Jordan Romano. So is Jeff Hoffman back, or is this just an overreaction?

As bad as Hoffman's May looked, a lot of the issues he had were pretty correctable. The majority of the damage he's given up has come from the long ball, having allowed eight home runs on the season and five in May. Across 118.2 innings with the Phillies in 2023 and 2024, he allowed just nine.

This is an entirely new issue for him. Even in 2020 when he had a 9.28 ERA over 20.1 innings with the Rockies, he was allowing a whole home run per nine less than he is this season. Some pitchers are just prone to allowing home runs, but this has never been the case with Hoffman. His problem this season has been pitch location. Most of the homers he's allowed have been off of fastballs that caught way too much of the zone like this one below to Wilson Contreras.

Opponents have also done damage on his off-speed pitches that were nowhere near where they needed to be like this slider to Jo Adell.

This isn't a fundamental flaw in his game, it's just something he needs to tidy up, and if he can he'll look more like the pitcher he was in April.

Outside of the home run issues, despite his struggles in May, Hoffman's numbers under the hood have generally continued to look good. His chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate all sit in the 99th, 92nd, and 96th percentiles respectively per statcast, and a lot of his other numbers look very similar to his stats from the last two seasons in Philadelphia when he was one of baseball's top closers.

He has the best strikeout rate of his career thus far, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is right about where it was last season. Two areas where he's struggled, is his hard hit and ground ball rates, which were issues for him last season too, and didn't prove to be detrimental. The only peripheral that really stands out is his career-worst barrel rate, where he ranks in the 9th percentile in MLB. This is largely a symptom of his home run problems, which should theoretically regress to the norm if he just gets his control issues figured out.

It would be naive to say he was never struggling and just got unlucky, but it's possible that his May wasn't quite as concerning as it appeared on the surface, and that the Hoffman we're getting in June is what we really should've been getting all along.

5.2 innings is, of course, a very small sample size. It's entirely possible that Hoffman's home run issues don't go away and he's forced out of the closer's role once Yimi García returns. That being said, it's also possible, even probable, that May was a flash in the pan and the Blue Jays are once again getting what they paid for; an elite closer.