3 reasons you should worry about the Blue Jays bullpen, and 3 reasons you shouldn’t

Despite the general perception that the Toronto Blue Jays should be a very good team in 2023, many are worried that the bullpen will ultimately prove to be their Achilles heel.

It may have all started when FanGraphs projected the Blue Jays to have the 13th best bullpen in baseball this year, worse than every other serious playoff contender, save for the Twins, Orioles, and the Edwin Díaz-less Mets.

Then again, it may actually have started with Kevin Gausman walking off the mound in game two of the Wild Card series last year …

So, should you be worried? Or will the Jays pen be better than they are currently being given credit for?

Three Reasons You Should Worry About the Blue Jays Bullpen

No. 3: Regression may be on the horizon for Jays relievers

If Romano, Swanson, and Bass pitch similarly to how they did last year, when they put up ERAs of 2.11, 1.68, and 1.54 respectively, the Jays will have one of the best back ends to their bullpen in baseball. However, numerous projection models have each of the three facing a steep regression this year.

Romano, for one, is projected by each of ZiPS, Steamer, and FanGraphs to add more than a full run to his ERA in 2023. Meanwhile, both Swanson and Bass are projected by all three models to see their ERA more than double.

If this regression happens, Blue Jays fans will probably have to worry about the bullpen.

No. 2: Durability will become a concern if this usage trend continues

Right out of the gate, the Blue Jays have used and abused their relief pitching options. On Opening Day, each of Zach Pop, Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza, Anthony Bass, Adam Cimber, Yimi García and Jordan Romano were all used in relief of Alek Manoah after his poor performance.

Fortunately, the Jays had the next day off and were able to get by with just Cimber and Swanson in the second game against the Cardinals. However, the series finale in St. Louis resulted in another day of heavily utilizing the relief corps.

After Chris Bassitt's meltdown on the mound that day, Pop, Trevor Richards, Bass and Mayza were all needed to fill in the blanks. This marks yet another day where a ton of relievers were used. Pop's usage in particular is interesting, especially after John Schneider singled him out as "one of the relievers who could go multiple innings". So far, he has mostly been used in relatively short spurts.

Where this becomes a problem down the line (or perhaps in the very near future if this trend continues), is when guys begin to experience fatigue thanks to over-usage. Right off the bat, the bullpen has been been leaned on, so the worry will eventually become about injuries popping up.

No. 1: A lack of lefties is worrisome

Currently, the Jays have only one left-handed reliever on their entire 40-man roster – Tim Mayza, who isn’t exactly prime Billy Wagner.

Some will point out that Erik Swanson was dominant against lefties last year, pitching to a .200 avg and .517 OPS against. However, for his career, Swanson has been slightly worse against lefties than righties, and it might be a bit of a stretch to rely on him as a lefty-killer.

Either way, it is somewhat surprising the Jays didn’t sign another lefty in the offseason. As it stands right now, John Schneider’s matchup options late in games are somewhat worrying.

No. 1: This relief corps has a ton of upside

If the Blue Jays bullpen is currently lacking, it might not stay that way for long. Not only have the Jays accumulated impressive depth, but within this depth are a number of high upside rolls of the dice which could totally change the complexion of the bullpen in the coming months.

Remember their lack of high-end velocity? Down at Triple-A, each of Nate Pearson, Yosver Zulueta, Julian Fernández, and Junior Fernández can run it up at 100 mph. If one or more of these arms can finally put it all together, the Jays bullpen could take on an entirely different look.

In addition, there are many who believe that this is the year Zach Pop finally harnesses his high-90s sinker and becomes a dominant late-inning arm, while others are sure Ricky Tiedemann arrives as a flamethrowing bullpen lefty.

And then there is the eventual return of Chad Green, who, through his seven-year big league career, has thrown up at 3.17 ERA in 272 appearances. Should he return at something close to his career norms, the Jays can add another high-leverage arm to their bullpen down the stretch.

Taken together, it seems likely that at least one or two of these guys will emerge as a high-end option in 2023. And if they do, there will be a lot less reason to worry about the Blue Jays bullpen.

So, are you worried about the Blue Jays bullpen, content, or taking a wait-and-see approach? Let me know in the comments below or on Twitter – @WriteFieldDeep.