3 reasons you should worry about the Blue Jays bullpen, and 3 reasons you shouldn’t

Despite the general perception that the Toronto Blue Jays should be a very good team in 2023, many are worried that the bullpen will ultimately prove to be their Achilles heel.

It may have all started when FanGraphs projected the Blue Jays to have the 13th best bullpen in baseball this year, worse than every other serious playoff contender, save for the Twins, Orioles, and the Edwin Díaz-less Mets.

Then again, it may actually have started with Kevin Gausman walking off the mound in game two of the Wild Card series last year …

So, should you be worried? Or will the Jays pen be better than they are currently being given credit for?

Three Reasons You Should Worry About the Blue Jays Bullpen

No. 3: Regression may be on the horizon for Jays relievers

If Romano, Swanson, and Bass pitch similarly to how they did last year, when they put up ERAs of 2.11, 1.68, and 1.54 respectively, the Jays will have one of the best back ends to their bullpen in baseball. However, numerous projection models have each of the three facing a steep regression this year.

Romano, for one, is projected by each of ZiPS, Steamer, and FanGraphs to add more than a full run to his ERA in 2023. Meanwhile, both Swanson and Bass are projected by all three models to see their ERA more than double.

If this regression happens, Blue Jays fans will probably have to worry about the bullpen.

Three Reasons You Shouldn’t Worry About the Blue Jays Bullpen

No. 3: The team's closer

Yes, saves have been devalued in today’s game, but there is still a level of comfort that comes from having a colossus at the back end of the pen you know you’re turning the ball over to in the ninth inning with a lead. Few teams in baseball are going to be more comfortable in this situation than the Jays.

For the last three years, Jordan Romano has been dominant, posting ERAs of 2.11, 2.14, and 1.23, while converting 90% of his save opportunities. Plus, it’s hard to deny that the guy just looks like a closer …

No. 2: The amount of bullpen depth in the minors should alleviate some worry

While FanGraphs projected the Jays to have the 13th best bullpen in baseball, they did assert, “what this group lacks in premium relief arms, they make up for in depth.”

It’s true that the Jays bullpen does contain a plethora of good-but-not-great veteran arms which provide a variety of different looks. But it’s more than that. The baseball season is a marathon, and you’re not just going to need the seven or eight relievers you start the season with. Here, the Jays are better situated than most.

Down on the farm, they have veterans who have succeeded in the big leagues before in Luke Bard and Paul Fry, young guns knocking on the door in Nate Pearson and Yosver Zulueta, and high-upside flamethrowers in Junior and Julian Fernández, not to mention low-upside swingman Trent Thornton.

Further, they can expect high-leverage reliever Chad Green to return from injury at some point this year, as well as Mitch White and Hyun-jin Ryu, who could either act as long men or push someone else into the pen if they start.

And hey, we haven’t even mentioned super-prospect Ricky Tiedemann …

Simply, the Jays are well-positioned to weather the inevitable storms which affect any bullpen over the course of a long season.

No. 1: This relief corps has a ton of upside

If the Blue Jays bullpen is currently lacking, it might not stay that way for long. Not only have the Jays accumulated impressive depth, but within this depth are a number of high upside rolls of the dice which could totally change the complexion of the bullpen in the coming months.

Remember their lack of high-end velocity? Down at Triple-A, each of Nate Pearson, Yosver Zulueta, Julian Fernández, and Junior Fernández can run it up at 100 mph. If one or more of these arms can finally put it all together, the Jays bullpen could take on an entirely different look.

In addition, there are many who believe that this is the year Zach Pop finally harnesses his high-90s sinker and becomes a dominant late-inning arm, while others are sure Ricky Tiedemann arrives as a flamethrowing bullpen lefty.

And then there is the eventual return of Chad Green, who, through his seven-year big league career, has thrown up at 3.17 ERA in 272 appearances. Should he return at something close to his career norms, the Jays can add another high-leverage arm to their bullpen down the stretch.

Taken together, it seems likely that at least one or two of these guys will emerge as a high-end option in 2023. And if they do, there will be a lot less reason to worry about the Blue Jays bullpen.

So, are you worried about the Blue Jays bullpen, content, or taking a wait-and-see approach? Let me know in the comments below or on Twitter – @WriteFieldDeep.