The Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Angels recently played a three-game set in L.A., which naturally led to some comparisons between Angels superstar Mike Trout (who is currently on the injured list) and Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Trout is in the back half of the 12-year, $426.5 million contract extension he signed in 2019, while Guerrero's new 14-year, $500 million extension will start next year.
While they're vastly different players on the field, they both have the bond of being the respective face of their franchise. Both of their teams picked them to be cornerstone of their roster, and neither of them have been able to live up to that when it comes to team success.
Trout, 33, is further ahead in his career, so the Blue Jays front office can look to the Angels' mistakes under Trout as a cautionary tale for what happens when you fail to build a winner around your superstar.
Even through the Angels had both Trout and generational talent Shohei Ohtani on the same roster for six years, they only managed to make the postseason once in Trout's career (which came in 2014 before Ohtani was on the roster).
Can the Blue Jays learn anything from the Angels' mistakes during Mike Trout era?
Lesson one: Health
One of the biggest reasons for the Angels' failures as of late has been Trout's inability to stay healthy, which is something a front office can't control.
Trout plays a premium position in center field (or did play center field), so he was always going to be more at risk to injury.
You can invest in your health department by getting the best physiotherapist, doctors and other medical professionals on your payroll – but it still won’t make a difference if a guy tears his meniscus several times. Trout has played just 482 games since he signed his contract, and he's failed to reach 100 games in four of the last six seasons.
"It's tough."
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 30, 2024
Mike Trout was visibly emotional discussing his knee injury that will require surgery.
(via @claudiagestro) pic.twitter.com/8osvhIZCg1
He's also currently on the injured list with a knee injury, and the timeline for his return is a bit hazy.
How can the Blue Jays avoid this mistake?
It doesn't seem like this will be an issue for the Blue Jays thanks to Guerrero’s durability. He’s played 861 games since he entered the league in 2019 – the eighth most played in MLB since that time. He’s also playing first base, which is much easier on the body than center field.
Four of the seven players who have played more games than Guerrero in that time frame are first baseman, which also bodes well for Guerrero's future health.
Lesson two: Bad signings
The second factor that has led to the Angels failure lies in their inconsistent offseason acquisitions. Even before the Trout extension, the Angels made several high-profile signings that often brought in players who have failed to meet expectations.
Early in his career, they tried to surround Trout with former MVPs Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols, and they also spent big money on starting pitchers like Joe Blanton and CJ Wilson
While not all of those contracts were complete disasters, they failed to get the Angels over the hump. They also spent big bucks on Justin Upton, Luis Valbuena, Anthony Rendon, and Zack Cozart, while trying to keep their pitching staff together by signing one-year deals on players like Trevor Cahill, Jose Quintana, Matt Harvey and Cody Allen.
News: Anthony Rendon is having hip surgery, and is expected to miss a long amount of time.
— Sam Blum (@SamBlum3) February 12, 2025
He had a setback in his rehab the last few weeks.
Another injury for Rendon, and it now becomes unclear if and when he’ll play for the Angels again.
On one hand, you love to see a team spending money and taking flyers on some guys, however, this added up to a lot of wasted money that never seemed to result in wins.
How can the Blue Jays avoid this mistake?
Sometimes free agency really is a crap shoot, and the player you are signing might never live up to their contract. But give Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins credit, he's had a fair amount of signings that have been better than expected and some signings that have been right on the money, along with a few stinkers here and there.
Atkins and this front office like to spend money wisely, and there are very few instances where they’ve brought in a player that has truly hindered their ability to put out a competitive team, especially in the Guerrero era.
The main frustration with fans has been the team's inability to sign megastars or get the one player who could put the team ahead.
There's no better example of this than the the past offseason when they brought in Anthony Santander but failed to pick up that one extra hitter in the form of an Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso.
It seems unlikely that the Blue Jays would take on a contract they really regret as long as Atkins is GM, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Thee Angels are a prime example of what happens when you start spending money for the sake of spending money.
Lesson three: Developing talent
The last area that has deterred the Angels from building a winner around Trout is the lack of success in developing big league talent.
The Angels' minor league system has consistently ranked among the worst in baseball since Trout made his debut, which is a big reason why the team felt the need to retool the roster through free agency. The last time their farm system ranked inside the top-10 was in 2007, and they've been a top-15 team just twice since they drafted Trout.
Farm systems with best, worst MiLB winning percentages:
— Sam Dykstra (@SamDykstraMiLB) June 3, 2024
1. Tigers, 132-96, .579
2. Mariners, 128-99, .564
3. Nationals, 122-104, .540
4. Giants, 123-105, .539
5. Rangers, 124-106, .539
26. Orioles/Reds, 105-124, .459
28. Braves/Pirates, 103-125, .452
30. Angels, 100-127, .441
They also set a Major League record by selecting 20 pitchers in 20 rounds of the 2021 MLB draft, and so far that hasn't produced anything noteworthy.
A big reason for that is that none of their first round picks have ended up being impact players. That list of first round picks includes players like C.J. Cron, Taylor Ward, and Jo Adell — guys who are solid players but complementary pieces.
How can the Blue Jays avoid this mistake?
This is the most worrisome area for the Blue Jays in their comparison to the Angels since Blue Jays have strggled in drafting and developing major league talent under Atkins.
They haven’t been as inept as the Angels, but their track record isn’t anything to put up on a pedestal. They have yet to develop a single position player that has become a mainstay alongside Guerrero since Vladdy made his debut in 2019.
They’ve had a few successes on the pitching side in terms of usable bullpen arms, but that’s really it. This front office is also responsible for drafting and developing Bo Bichette, but he and Guerrero are the last impact hitters to come out of their minor league system.
If the Blue Jays want to avoid the same missteps as the Angels, they're going to need to start drafting and developing players who can become bonafide MLBers.
There's a chance that guys like Alan Roden and Addison Barger could morph into those players, but they'll need to develop a couple more successes if they want to have a chance to build a dynasty around Guerrero.