Trey Yesavage is Blue Jays' best chance yet to change a troublesome narrative

Trey Yesavage's pro career is off to a great start.

This year marks the first action for Yesavage since the Blue Jays took him in the No. 20 pick in last year's MLB Draft, and he's shown exactly why he was picked in that spot. The 21-year-old has made five starts with the Dunedin Blue Jays and currently boasts a 2.22 ERA in 28 1/3 innings. He has a 0.900 WHIP and has racked up 36 strikeouts to go along with just eight walks.

While he's still only in Single-A, those are great numbers, which has fans wondering how long it'll take for Yesavage to climb up the major league ranks.

Trey Yesavage is the most important prospect in the Blue Jays' organization

If you haven’t heard, the Blue Jays need a fifth starter. They got behind the eight ball when Max Scherzer suffered his injury and have had to shuffle through players like Easton Lucas and José Ureña to fill the void.

They haven't cut it.

While Spencer Turnbull may provide relief soon, the Blue Jays are still scrambling to fill their rotation.

While many teams would be thrilled to have a starting foursome of Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Bowden Francis, the Blue Jays don’t have a reliable option for the fifth day. That problem isn't going to go away any time soon, as Gausman, Bassitt and Berríos are all in their 30's.

This season marks the tenth season under the leadership of Ross Atkins as the Toronto Blue Jays General Manager, and the team hasn't produced many impacting starting pitchers under that tunure.

That said, Atkins has been proficient in finding and alluring talent from other teams to fill out his rotations. He filled out the team's rotation with free agent signings like Hyun Jin Ryu, Yusei Kikuchi, Bassitt and Gausman, and traded for Berríos, Robbie Ray and Ross Stripling.

But it's clear that the front office has struggled to target and draft starting pitchers who can make an impact in MLB. Before last year's amateur draft, MLB.com ran an article looking at every team’s best draft pick over the last ten years (since 2014), which inadvertently shined a light on some of the Blue Jays missteps in that period.

In 2016, the Blue Jays used their first-round pick on right-handed pitcher T.J. Zeuch, who produced 0.2 bWAR in 49 innings pitched over three years with Toronto. Here are some players taken after Zeuch: Zac Gallen (St. Louis, 3rd round, No. 16, 20.5 bWAR), Shane Bieber (Cleveland, 4th round, No. 122, 17.7 bWAR), and Corbin Burnes (Milwaukee, 4th round, No. 111, 17.6 bWAR).

The Blue Jays had the No. 12 pick in 2018 and drafted Jordan Groshans as a shortstop. He never played a game with Toronto and has produced -0.1 bWAR in his career.

The division rival Tampa Bay Rays used the No. 16 pick on Shane McClanahan, who has been worth 8.8 bWAR. The Blue Jays also missed out on Logan Gilbert (Seattle, 14th overall, 10.4 bWAR), Brady Singer (Kansas City, 18th overall, 9.4 bWAR) and Kris Bubic (Kansas City, 41st overall, 4.1 bWAR).

In the past decade, Alek Manoah is the only pitcher drafted by Toronto who made a positive impact on the starting rotation. Manoah has a 7.3 career bWAR, but actually accumulated 8.8 bWAR through his first two seasons in 2021 and 2022. He then followed with two seasons worth -1.5 bWAR, in large part due to injures.

The Blue Jays have used plenty high draft picks on pitchers recently: a list that includes Ricky Tiedemann, Gunnar Hoglund, Chad Dallas, CJ Van Eyk, and Brandon Barriera.

However, due to poor performance, injury, or trade, none of them are expected to impact the Blue Jays any time soon. Manoah is expected to return after the All-Star break, but there are questions about his long-term abilities after ineffectiveness and injury.

This collection of non-impact starting pitching has hurt the Blue Jays' pitching depth, and has been one of the biggest reasons why the team is seemingly always searching for starting pitching help in free agency and the trade market.

While Yesavage has a chance to change that, it doesn't take away from the countless missteps the team's had in developing starting pitching before him.