Blue Jays need to target these two buy low candidates for starting pitching depth

We’ve learned a few things so far about the Toronto Blue Jays offseason plans: they’re in on transcendent, 26-year-old superstar Juan Soto, but that money is likely only earmarked to sign him, not to be spread elsewhere. That leaves anywhere from $20 ~ 40M in additional payroll capacity outside of Soto, depending which arbitration eligible players are non-tendered this Friday.

They’re interested in adding starting pitching as well, with rumors around top of the market names like Max Fried and top international amateur free agent Roki Sasaki. After trading Yusel Kikuchi and losing Alek Manoah to UCL surgery, the current rotation is still solid, led by Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos, with hopes that Bowden Francis can build on his breakout in the second half of this past season.

But Gausman and Bassitt are now both in their mid-30s, and their incredible run of durability isn’t something the front office should be counting on with so much mileage on their arms. Toronto starters have pitched the fifth-most innings in MLB over the past two seasons, posting the fourth-lowest ERA (3.90) and tenth-lowest FIP (4.15).

Six starters have made 89% of their 324 starts and pitched 86% of starter’s innings since 2023, but Kikuchi accounted for 54 of those starts and Manoah for 24. If the season were to start today, Francis and Yariel Rodríguez would be counted on to cover for at least the 27 starts Kikuchi and Manoah made, as well as their combined 34 starts in 2024.

There’s not much in the way of depth beyond that in the farm system, with Jake Bloss and Adam Macko the only two minor league starters on the current 40-man roster, and most of their top prospects rehabbing from UCL surgeries along with Manoah. 2024 1st-round pick Trey Yesavage is the only Blue Jay in MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospect ranking at No. 94, but he has yet to throw a pitch professionally.

So with finite payroll resources beyond a special circumstance like Soto, and a serious lack of starting pitching depth, the front office is likely going to have get creative. Here are our ideas to thread that needle, and sign two starters who can provide depth in 2025 as they look to rebuild their value. They could also push Rodríguez into a relief role, which would help as they rebuild the bullpen.

World Series star Walker Buehler

MLB Trade Rumors predicts a one-year, $15M free agent deal for former Dodgers ace Walker Buehler. Of course, he threw the last pitch of the 2024 season, closing out a Los Angeles World Series championship on one day’s rest in Game Five.

The 30-year-old had a tough regular season though, going 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP in only 16 starts and 75.1 innings pitched coming off a hip ailment and an assortment of injuries, including missing all of 2023 rehabbing from his second career Tommy John surgery. He’s only made 28 starts since his All-Star season in 2021, when he went 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA in 33 starts over 207.2 innings.

While his average four-seam fastball velocity at 95 mph this year wasn’t down much from 95.3 mph in 2021, as his strikeout rate has fallen from 26% in 2021 to only 18.6% in 2024, he’s had to start relying more on his off speed pitches, including a newly refined 82.5 mph sweeper, and a 91.2 mph cutter. That was accompanied by a higher walk percentage this year at 8.1%, up from a 6.5% career average.

After the Dodgers, who know him and his medical record best, opted against extending a $21.05M qualifying offer to Buehler, he’s available for any team to sign without any draft pick or international bonus pool compensation attached. While some teams may be scared off by his 8.2% swinging strike rate in 2024, which ranked him 190 out of the 204 pitchers who threw at least 70 innings, there were signs in the Fall Classic that he’s become a more complete pitcher.

In his October 17 NLCS start against the Mets, Buehler struck out six, but also generated 18 swings and misses, the most in the first four innings of a postseason game since pitch-tracking data became available in 2008. As two-time World Series MVP and his former Dodgers teammate Corey Seager said recently, “That's the guy you want on the mound. He’s a special person.”

As per MLB reporter David Adler, “Buehler, still just 30 years old,could be a high-upside signing with star potential — thanks to the flashes he showed throughout the postseason of the dominant pitcher he used to be.” In October, Buehler started generating more rise on his four-seamer, and hitters started swinging and missing more:

Buehler's four-seamer, 2024 regular season vs. postseason:
Regular season: 16.7 inches induced rise — 17% whiff rate
Postseason: 18.5 inches induced rise — 29% whiff rate

That set up Buehler's best pitch in the playoffs, and the one he used to end the World Series: his knuckle-curve. Per Adler, “He didn't allow a single hit on his curveball all postseason — hitters were 0-for-12 against it, with four strikeouts, including Buehler's K's of Austin Wells and Alex Verdugo for the final two outs of the Fall Classic.”

Buehler's knuckle-curve, 2024 regular season vs. postseason: Regular season: 14.7 inches induced drop -- 10.7 inches horizontal break Postseason: 16.6 inches induced drop -- 12.2 inches horizontal break

As Adler further notes, “There was also his sweeper, which averaged 15 inches of horizontal break in the regular season, but 19.5 inches of horizontal break in the playoffs — tied for the most glove-side horizontal break on any pitch type in the postseason.”

In other words, he’s a perfect guy to bet on himself with a “show me” contract like his Dodgers rotation mate Jack Flaherty did last year. MLBTR calls Buehler “perhaps the top reclamation project in this year’s rotation class… . It’s a stretch to expect the ace form he showed back in 2021, [but it’s] not out of the question that’ll lead to enough interest to get a two-year deal with an opt-out. One year feels likelier given the regular season numbers. Buehler will try to follow in the path taken by [Luis] Severino and Flaherty last winter.”

A Chad Green-type deal for the rehabbing Shane Bieber

MLBTR also predicts a one-year, $12M free agent contract for former Cleveland ace Shane Bieber, who continues to rehab from Tommy John surgery last April, and likely won’t contribute until later next summer. As MLBTR notes, “He posted a sub-3.00 ERA in 200 innings during his last full, healthy season (2022) but did so with a fastball averaging 91.5 mph — nowhere close to the 94.3 mph he averaged during his Cy Young campaign [in the pandemic shortened 2020 season].”

Bieber, who turns 30-years-old next May, would be much like a July Trade Deadline acquisition assuming his rehab goes well. Per MLBTR, “Some teams might hope to land him on a two-year deal that pays him more in 2026 with a lesser 2025 salary in what’ll be an injury-shortened season. For Bieber, however, it’s likely more appealing to sign a deal that’ll allow him to get back to market next offseason.”

Perhaps a deal structured like Chad Green’s Blue Jays contract would work here. As per MLB’s Blue Jays beat reporter Keegan Matheson, Green’s two-year, $8.5M deal signed ahead of the 2023 season came “with a unique contract structure… given that the 31-year-old Green [was] still recovering from Tommy John surgery in May [2022].”

The structure gave Toronto a three-year, $27M team option after the first year, which if declined then offered Green a one-year, $6.5M player option. If both of those options were declined, the Blue Jays would then have a final two-year, $21M option to cover the 2024 and 2025 seasons, which is what was eventually exercised after last season when Toronto picked up the 2-year option.

That would give Bieber a guaranteed salary for next season, and share some of the risk if his recovery from Tommy John doesn’t go well. It would allow him to rebuild his value by betting on himself, but also give the Blue Jays options for starting pitching depth given Bassitt will be a free agent after 2025, Gausman is a free agent after 2026, and Berríos has an opt-out of his contract after 2026 as well, which could see him giving up $48M from the final two years of his deal in 2027 and 2028 if he believes his market value is higher, and he wants another longer-term deal following his age-32 season.

A bet on yourself, show me win-win

Following the New York Mets success of signing low-risk, high reward starters Luis Severino and Sean Manaea last offseason, the Blue Jays front office should build upon their previous “bet on yourself” contracts with players like Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray and Chad Green by taking a flyer on both Walker Buehler and Shane Bieber, who have four All-Star nods and an AL Cy Young award between them.

They would allow Yariel Rodríguez to bolster the bullpen, would allow starting pitching prospects Jake Bloss, Adam Macko and Trey Yesavage more time to develop under new minor-league pitching coach Justin Lehr, and would be a bridge to the likes of Alek Manoah, plus top pitching prospects Ricky Tiedemann, Brandon Barriera, Chad Dallas and Landen Maroudis, who are all rehabbing from UCL surgeries. And the price would likely be right for a club with finite resources and multiple holes to fill this offseason.