Checking in on Alek Manoah: What can fans expect from him in 2025?

While Alek Manoah hasn't played a major role in the Blue Jays' rotation since 2022, the 2025 season represents an opportunity for the big right-hander to take back his spot once he comes back from the injured list.

In June of this year, it was announced that Manoah would undergo surgery to repair his right ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) and would miss (at least) the remainder of the season. He's not likely to be ready for live play at the start of the 2025 season but hopes are that he can return at some point during the year. If he's able to make it back to the MLB roster midway through the 2024 season, that would be optimistic.

In 2023, Manoah saw his control on the mound diminish almost entirely, spurring his BB/9 (walks per nine innings) to spiral from 2.3 in his dominant 2022 campaign to a cringe-inducing rate of 6.1 the following year. Baseball Savant ranks Manoah's walk rate in 2023 at the third percentile league-wide, making him borderline unusable at the MLB level. But this was far from the only aspect of his game that suffered a setback in 2023; he also allowed more hits, home runs, runs, and struck out less batters than ever before.

Yes, Manoah's 2022 season was incredible, but coming from a 24-year-old borderline rookie, this season could hardly be expected to repeat time and time again without a proven track record. 2023 certainly proved this, but Manoah wasn't necessarily bringing the same stuff to the table that he had a year prior.

In 2023, Manoah threw his slider with more consistency than either his four-seam fastball or his sinker, something he hadn't done in the Majors to that point. All three of these pitches saw at a speed drop of at least 0.5 MPH from their averages in 2022, indicating that his arsenal wasn't keeping up as well as the year before.

He would be reassigned to the Florida Complex League (CPX) where he allowed 11 earned runs in 2.2 innings of work, validating the thought that he wasn't comfortable on the mound. Essentially, this was a lost year for both the Blue Jays and Manoah because of his inability to recreate, even to a lesser extent, the success of his 2022 season. He looked to make a comeback in 2024 to find a spot in the Jays' rotation where it's clear his stuff could play.

Alek Manoah was only able to start 5 games for the Jays in 2024 and he actually found a decent amount of success, unlike his 2023 season. The big righty went 1-2 over this small sample size with an encouraging 3.70 ERA to go with 26 strikeouts and just 8 walks over 24.2 innings pitched. Although his 2024 comeback effort was squashed early due to injury, it's still important to see these games for what they are: a sign that the old Manoah's not gone.

He went 7 full innings in two of these 5 starts, the most notable of these coming in Toronto against their division rival Tampa Bay Rays on May 19th. His line for the night read: 7 innings, one hit, zero runs allowed, and seven strikeouts to go along with just one walk. Watching this performance took Blue Jays fans back to 2022 as they witnessed the masterclass that Alek Manoah had once so frequently put on display.

Manoah's recovery from his UCL surgery appears to be progressing well, as he has shared several photos to his social media showing his journey to coming back. Most notably, the once-hefty right-hander continues to look more and more robust with each picture. Whenever he's clear to come back to the mound, expect a different and more locked in Manoah than we've seen over the last few years.

Well, what can we expect from Manoah if/when he comes back to the MLB roster in 2025? Recent performances, albeit relatively long ago now, have indicated that he's going to do just fine if given the right amount of time to recover. Alek's personality is one that never gives up and it'd be hard to imagine he doesn't approach this season with everything he's got.

Especially with key pieces of the pitching staff like Jordan Romano sidelined with injury and Bo Bichette's 2024 evident struggles, they're going to need every bit of good pitching they can get.

Whether we'll see a new mix of pitches from the righty or a noticeable change in velocity, it's safe to say he's going to be as entertaining as ever on the mound when the Jays have him back. He's proven to be a big part of this team's success and hopefully a successful season from Manoah will reflect the same luck on the rest of the team.