Blue Jays need to target newest Japanese pitching sensation Roki Sasaki

When a 23-year-old international amateur — who can throw a 102 mph fastball with a wipeout, 88-92 mph split-finger fastball to complement that heat — is about to be posted by his Japanese team, front offices pay attention.

The Toronto Blue Jays are sure to be interested in phenom Roki Sasaki, whose current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, has started the process of posting him so he can sign with an MLB team.

He also has an emotional backstory to boot. When he was just nine years old, he lost his father, his grandparents and his home in the devastating tsunami that followed the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake. On that same day 12 years later, he made his World Baseball Classic debut for Team Japan and struck out eight Czech batters in 3.2 scoreless innings, allowing only two hits and two walks.

Nine days later, he struck out MLB star Randy Arozarena with the following sequence of pitches, inducing a swinging strike through a 102 mph fastball to finish him off, all at the tender age of 21.

According to a translation of Chiba’s post on X, their general manager Naoki Matsumoto said: "Ever since he joined the team, we have heard from him that he dreamed of playing in America. After making a comprehensive judgment over the past five years, we have decided to respect his wish. We hope he will do his best as a representative of Japan. We are rooting for him."

In the same post, Sasaki was quoted as saying, “Since I joined the team, they’ve been listening to my thoughts about a future challenge in MLB, and I am very grateful to the team for officially allowing me to post now.”

The Blue Jays need to target Roki Sasaki, the newest Japanese pitching phenom

In four Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) seasons with Chiba, the 6-foot-4 Sasaki posted a 29-15 record with a 2.10 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and a whopping 505 strikeouts in 394.2 innings for an 11.5 K/9 rate. He’s legitimately considered to have some of the best pure stuff on earth, with a fastball that averaged 97 mph this year, plus a devastating split-finger and a wipeout slider.

As per Jeff Passan of ESPN, “The posting system is the method of transfer between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball that makes him available to all 30 teams.”

However, because of his age (he just turned 23 on Nov. 3), Sasaki is considered an international amateur free agent and can sign only a minor league contract, which drastically limits how much MLB teams can pay him. Players who are at least 25 years old with six years played in a foreign league can sign major league contracts when posted.

Like Shohei Ohtani, who signed with the Los Angeles Angels as a 23-year-old international free agent in 2017, whichever MLB team signs Sasaki will control him for six years through at least 2030 before he’d be eligible for free agency.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today notes: “There hasn’t been a bargain like this since 2017 when the Angels signed Ohtani at the age of 23 for just $2.315M. The Angels then paid him $445,000 his rookie year, $650,000 his second year, $700,000 his third year, $8.5M for the next two years, and $30M in his final year before hitting free agency.”

So let the bidding begin?

It’s not that simple — the timing of the posting makes things interesting, according to Thomas Mayo of MLB.com.

“Depending on when he is officially signed, his contract would fall under either the 2024 international signing period, which ends on Dec. 15, or the 2025 period, which opens on Jan. 15,” per Mayo.

“If he's posted before Dec. 2, he could only sign during the 2024 period since the 45-day negotiating window would expire before the [2025] signing period begins. If he were to be posted between Dec. 2-15, he could sign during either period, though he'd only have until Dec. 15 to negotiate a deal for the [2024] period.”

It can take several weeks to process the posting, and Sasaki is subject to international bonus pool money restrictions. So if he’s posted before Dec. 2, a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers would have an advantage, given they still have $2.5M in remaining international bonus pool money to spend for the 2024 signing period through Dec. 15. That’s the most of any team, followed by the Baltimore Orioles at $2.15M and the New York Yankees at $1.49M.

Toronto can’t compete with that, given they’ve already spent almost all of their $5.152M international bonus pool money for the 2024 signing period on a bevy of prospects, headlined by Venezuelan catcher Franklin Rojas. They’d already forfeited $500,000 from their 2024 pool for signing Chris Bassitt as a free agent after he rejected a qualifying offer from the New York Mets following the 2022 season.

If Sasaki is posted after Dec. 2 and doesn’t sign by Dec. 15, all 30 teams’ bonus pools would reset for the 2025 signing period that begins on Jan. 15 next year. The Blue Jays will have $6.26M to spend for the 2025 signing period, although they’ve apparently already committed $250K to 21-year-old, 6-foot-5 Cuban righty Silvano Hechavarría.

Blue Jays aren't the favorite to sign Roki Sasaki

So timing is everything here. While the Blue Jays are mentioned as a possible destination for Sasaki, the Dodgers are the current betting favorite. But if Sasaki wants to avoid the Japanese media horde following Ohtani and Dodger teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he could look further south to San Diego, given that Padres starter Yu Darvish is a close friend, mentor and World Baseball Classic teammate.

According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Sasaki has a list of priorities and the Padres have a strong case (subscription required).

“League sources told The Athletic’s Will Sammon that Sasaki’s priorities will include stability, lifestyle, comfort and a team’s history of player development," Lin writes. "San Diego can make a strong case that it offers each of the first three qualities. With Darvish and reliever Yuki Matsui in the clubhouse, and Japanese icon Hideo Nomo in the front office, the Padres are equipped to ease a potential transition.”

Passan also notes that, “Both New York teams have extreme interest in Sasaki, though he could opt for an organization with pedigree and experience (the Cubs), a team in an international city (Toronto), one whose past success with Japanese players still resonates (Darvish started his career with the Rangers) or those whose reputation for bringing the best out in players might appeal (Rays).”

So fingers crossed that he’s not posted until Dec. 2 at the earliest, doesn’t sign with anyone by the Dec. 15 end of the 2024 signing period, and that Toronto’s front office can sell him by the Jan. 15 start of the 2025 signing period on the city, the organization and the stability of a front office that’s been in place for nine seasons. Trying to sign him would certainly fit with their apparent interest in starting pitching this offseason.