Yusei Kikuchi suggests he’s interested in a reunion, but not with the Blue Jays

Following the Houston Astro’s early exit from their American League Wild Card series against the upstart Detroit Tigers, pending free agent - and former Blue Jays lefty - Yusei Kikuchi said he’d like to come back… to Houston, which he called a “really good organization, really good team for years.”

While he was lined up to start Game Three of the Wild Card series after Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, Houston was swept in two games.

Toronto traded him at the deadline for outfielder Joey Loperfido, infielder Will Wagner and pitching prospect Jake Bloss. Kikuchi went 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 10 starts and 60 innings down the stretch for Houston, helping them win the AL West for a 4th consecutive year and 7th time in the past 8 seasons. The Astros went 9-1 in his starts, with the lone loss coming on September 25, the day after Houston had clinched the divison and might have been a bit flat following their celebrations.

Coming off a three-year, $36M free agent contract that he signed with Toronto ahead of the 2022 season, the 33-year-old is in line for another 3-5 year deal, likely worth much more per year than the $12M AAV he’s been paid while posting a combined 26-23 record with a 4.24 ERA, 4.20 FIP and 511 strikeouts in 444.0 innings pitched. His ERA+ was 96, suggesting he is close to the MLB average.

Stripping out a tough 2022 campaign, where he posted an ugly 5.19 ERA, he’s posted a 20-16 record with a 3.96 ERA over 64 starts and 343.1 with 387 strikeouts over the past two seasons, with an ERA+ of 105, i.e. 5% better than MLB average. His cumulative 6.0 fWAR over those two seasons ranks him 15th among qualified starters, sandwiched between Aaron Nola of the Phillies and Luis Castillo of the Mariners.

Nola signed a seven-year, $182M ($24.6M AAV) extension after the 2023 season going into his age 31 season. Castillo signed a signed a five-year, $108M (AAV $21.6M) contract extension with the Seattle Mariners in September 2022 when he was 29-years old. A high water mark for another southpaw might be the six-year, $162M ($27M AAV) free agent contract signed by then 30-year-old Carlos Rodón with the Yankees in December 2022.

That would imply that Kikuchi is potentially in-line for a $20M+ AAV contract, and could even suggest that Houston might making him a qualifying offer (QO) in November. QO’s - based on the mean salary of the 125 highest-paid players from the current season - are projected to be $21.2M this year.

The feeling is apparently mutual in Houston, with Astros general manager Dana Brown saying, “We took a lot of heat for that [Kikuchi] trade and he came in and did an outstanding job." They asked him to use his changeup and slider more after acquiring him, and the results speaks for themselves. In fact, his slider usage rose from 20% in July to 36% in August and 39% in September.

The Kikuchi family seems to have enjoyed their brief time in Houston so far, with Yusei’s wife Rumi Fukatsu walking the runway at the Astros Foundation luncheon last month with their son Leo.

He was popular in Toronto, too, receiving a standing ovation from fans after his final start as a Blue Jay, an eventual 6-5 walk-off win on July 26. As manager John Schneider said afterwards, “Just to watch him evolve at this stage of his career has been really cool. When you put that alongside how he fits in with the city and with the team, he’s really, really well-liked in the clubhouse. He’s really funny, too, and people don’t get to see that part of him. Being around Chris [Bassitt], Kevin [Gausman] and José [Berríos] has been great for him.”

Certainly the Blue Jays could use starting pitching depth, but with other gaping holes to fill on their roster to improve for 2025, a $20M+ AAV contract for Kikuchi probably means he’s priced himself out of Toronto’s budget for this offseason. He was certainly a beloved player and popular teammate in Toronto, but it appears more likely that he could return to Houston next season and not Rogers Centre as a Blue Jay.