Blue Jays extension hopes with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. take hit with arbitration update

The arbitration filing deadline has arrived, and the biggest looming question for the Toronto Blue Jays involved the exorbitant sum Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was sure to command, and how it could impact his future with the team. No one thought that he would come cheap in his final year of arbitration, but every element and reaction to this year's arbitration process will tell us a lot about where the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. stand, in terms of assessing his value.

Last year, the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. ended up going to an arbitration hearing, which Guerrero Jr. won and earned a $19.9 million salary, a record among salaries that have been awarded via hearing. A look at arbitration salary projections for this year showed that most thought that Guerrero Jr. could get a salary approaching $30 million, if not more than that. Based on those projections, any Guerrero Jr. extension is going to be incredibly pricey.

Thursday was the deadline for Toronto and Guerrero Jr. to either settle on a contract for 2025 or file opposing arbitration figures to be decided between in a hearing.

The good news is that the Blue Jays won't be going to an arbitration hearing with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this year. The bad news is that it took all day to get a deal done and after the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. agreed to a $28.5 million deal for 2025, hopes of an extension with the young star may be further than ever.

The Blue Jays are in a no-win situation when it comes to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and arbitration.

Unfortunately for Toronto, there was very little chance that the arbitration process was going to bring good news when it came to Guerrero Jr.'s contract. In a perfect world, the two sides would settle on a 2025 deal that would have been lower than projections, as that would have indicated a desire from Guerrero Jr.'s camp to stick around beyond 2025.

Such a scenario was always a pipe dream, however. Settling before the filing deadline was always going to require the Blue Jays to give Guerrero Jr. close to $30 million. Given that the two sides couldn't come to terms last year, filing and going to an arbitration hearing was among the most likely outcomes going in, as it is abundantly clear that the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. are not on the same page in terms of the finances.

It feels likely that Blue Jays fans can expect more of the same when it comes to a potential contract extension. While it is possible that Toronto can come up with a deal more to his liking, it was pretty telling that Guerrero Jr. publicly trashed the Blue Jays' first extension offer and the two sides remain at least $100 million apart, per recent reports. The Blue Jays may up their offer, but it is hard to believe that such a gap is getting closed anytime soon.

As painful as it may be, Thursday's filing deadline may be the latest step in Guerrero Jr.'s slow exit from Toronto. Exactly how it ends is the only outstanding question.

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