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It's quite possible the next decade of Blue Jays baseball will hinge on whether or not they can successfully extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -- especially given the latest rumored alternate pathways.
Yes, other prominent storylines have existed in Toronto over the course of the past turbulent year. This melange includes their Shohei Ohtani chase, whether or not the front office is on the hot seat, and any number of free agency or trade rumors. Still, a common, determinative thread for a few years now has been whether the Blue Jays can lock Guerrero Jr. down.
Right now, the odds do not look great. Guerrero Jr. reportedly set a spring training deadline for an extension, and he candidly said that Toronto's most recent offer was "not even close to what I’m looking for". Assuming he is firm on that deadline, there are only a matter of weeks left before we know for certain if Guerrero Jr. will test the free agent market. Not only would his departure leave a significant void, but the latest news indicates it might sting in more ways than one.
The latest update from USA Today's Bob Nightengale was more of the same, in addition to some even worse news. Not only did Nightengale say that there was at least a $100 million gap in talks at the moment, but he also said that Guerrero Jr. would love to play for the Red Sox if he doesn't stay in Toronto.
Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits the longest Home Run of his career.
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) June 25, 2024
The 471-foot bomb is the 3rd longest ever hit at Fenway Park in the Statcast Era#TOTHECORE pic.twitter.com/eXLXJIO6iK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. going to the Red Sox would be a near worst-case scenario for the Blue Jays
Aside from the Yankees, who are understandably the league's favorite villain, Guerrero Jr. going to Boston would be the next-worst outcome. Toronto is already struggling to attract top talent right now to keep pace in the AL East. Having a stud like Guerrero Jr. spurn them to play in Boston would not only be terrible optics for the organization, but would undoubtedly strengthen a chief competitor for playoff spots in the future.
However, that feels like a very realistic possibility after Nightengale's report. All of a sudden, the Red Sox's reluctance to spend this offseason makes a lot more sense if they are planning to throw a bunch of money at Vladdy Jr. next offseason. Moreover, Nightengale's reporting seems to be very clear here when he said the slugger would "love to be with the Red Sox," assuming a world where he didn't stay in Toronto.
Where the Blue Jays go from here is going to be fascinating to watch. Toronto has a number of top free agents they are still chasing at the moment, and one wonders if they are trying to get those deals done to further convince Guerrero Jr. to stay, in addition to probably needing to up their current extension offer. As of this moment, the Blue Jays' nightmare scenario with Guerrero Jr. may actually be the safer bet.