Why Mark Shapiro is right to be optimistic about a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. deal

Alright, let’s cut through the noise.

There’s a lot of hand-wringing over Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s future in Toronto, but let’s be honest, Mark Shapiro should have reason every reason to feel good about locking him up.

This isn’t some small-market franchise sweating bullets over a superstar’s price tag. The Blue Jays are built to make this deal happen, both financially and culturally. Here’s more reasons, other than just the financial case, why it’s a no-brainer.

Why Mark Shapiro is right to optimistic about a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. deal

Toronto can afford Vlad... and they know it

You can’t win in Major League Baseball without spending money. That’s just reality. And the Blue Jays? They’ve got it. Revenue is up, fans are engaged, so Rogers Communications has no excuse to let a generational talent walk because of a price tag. Ticket sales? Booming. TV deals? Strong. Merch sales? Every kid in Toronto wants a Guerrero jersey.

They're also in a great spot pay-roll wise. There’s room to pay Guerrero what he’s worth. And let’s be real, this isn’t just about a slugger smashing baseballs. Guerrero is a face-of-the-franchise guy. A superstar. He sells tickets. He sells TV ratings. Letting him walk? That would be franchise malpractice.

The Jays have built a culture that works

The Blue Jays have been doing their version of methodically building a winning culture. The pitching staff is set, Bo Bichette will likely be the next contract domino to fall after Guerrero (they can both walk after the season), and signing both of them to an extension would demonstrate to everyone that they're serious.

There’s a sense that this team is right on the cusp of something big, and Guerrero is a massive part of that. Missing out on Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto were free agency long-shots that didn't land, but signing Guerrero is as close to a lock as you can get. Not getting this deal done would be catastrophic.

Shapiro and Ross Atkins don’t operate on emotion (in spite of recent out-of-character statements). They play the long game. This isn’t the pre-2015 Blue Jays, where stars bolted and fans were left hoping for miracles. This is a front office that is seeking sustainability of success, and keeping Guerrero is at the core of that plan.

Where’s he actually going to go?

Look around the league. Who’s writing the blank check for Guerrero? The Yankees? They have big problems with their recent overpayment for washed up talent. The Red Sox? His addition would bury top prospects. The Dodgers? They just threw over a billion dollars at Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Mets? They’re still recovering from last year’s spending spree and a new addition in Juan Soto.

Toronto offers Guerrero more than just money. He’s comfortable and embraced here. He’s the leader of a team that’s built to compete. Sure, he could test free agency, but is he really going to find a better situation? Doubt it.

Bottom Line: This deal gets done

Mark Shapiro knows what he’s doing. The money is there and Guerrero's proved his worth. The fit is there. The motivation is there. This isn’t some long-shot hope. This is just smart business. Guerrero staying in Toronto is the best move for everyone, and when you add it all up, it’s clear that this deal is going to get done.