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An economist's take on why the Blue Jays would be smart to offer Vladimir Guerrero Jr. $600 million

Here's why a potential Guerrero deal could end up being a discount.
ByKen King|
Mark Blinch/GettyImages

Let's dive into the swirling vortex of Major League Baseball's latest high-stakes poker game: the validity of signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a 10-year, $600 million contract. Yes, you heard that right, $600 million. But before you clutch your pearls or spit out your sunflower seeds, let's break down why an investment in Guerrero isn't just a swing for the fences but a calculated financial home run.

Here's how a proposed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract would look compared to Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani's contracts

The Heavy Hitters: A Comparative Look

First, let's set the stage with a lineup of recent megadeals:

  • Juan Soto: 15 years, $765 million with the New York Mets.
  • Shohei Ohtani: 10 years, $700 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Now, enter Guerrero, the Toronto Blue Jays' prodigious first baseman.

In 2024, Guerrero Jr. boasted a .323 batting average and .396 OBP with 30 home runs and 103 RBI culminating in a .940 OPS. He was also worth 5.5 fWAR. One look at those numbers and it's easy to start to see why he's asking for a contract in the range of $600 million over ten years. But the real question is whether or not he's right to be asking for this number?

The Cost-Per-Stat Breakdown

To truly appreciate the value proposition, let's crunch some numbers. We're going to compare the cost per key career statistics such as batting average (AVG), on-base plus slugging (OPS), home runs (HR), runs batted in (RBI), and Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and others against the contract value.

While this approach is based on the principle of buying what a player has already proven capable of, we can assume that Guerrero's potential future performance will likely be around these numbers.

Player

Contract Value

Contract Term

Cost per AVG point per year

Cost per OPS point per year

Cost per OBP point per year

Cost per HR per year

Cost per RBI per year

Cost per WAR per year

Guerrero Jr
Age: 25

$600 million

10 years

$208,333

$69,524

$165,289

$375,000

$118,343

$10,909,090

Ohtani
Age: 30

$700 million

10 years

$248,226

$73,995

$188,679

$311,111

$123,456

$7,692,307

Soto
Age: 26

$765 million

15 years

$178,947

$53,515

$121,140

$253,731

$86,148

$6,296,296

Why Guerrero Jr. Is Worth Every Penny

  1. In most statistical categories (except WAR) we can see he's right around both these stars in his ask. Full stop.
  2. At 25, Guerrero is entering his prime, which allows for him to offer a longer horizon of peak performance compared to his peers.
  3. With his charismatic presence and lineage, Guerrero is a marketer's dream and promises substantial returns through merchandise sales and fan engagement.
  4. His upward trajectory in performance metrics indicates not just consistency but potential for even greater achievements as he's shown willingness to move positions and tweak his swing to help the Blue Jays win.

The Bottom Line

Investing $600 million in Guerrero isn't just about securing a powerhouse hitter; it's about anchoring Toronto's future with a player whose performance metrics offer a favorable cost-per-stat ratio. In the high-stakes world of MLB contracts, Guerrero stands out as a financially sound investment poised to deliver both on the field and at the ticket counter.

So, to the decision-makers holding the purse strings: it's time to step up to the plate and make an offer that reflects the true value of Guerrero. This deal promises to be a home run.

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