What Blue Jays fans need to know about a potential MLB lockout

The current MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to expire on December 1 at 11:59 pm EST. When that happens, and if a new agreement hasn’t been reached, it would trigger a potential lockout of the players. This would prevent teams from performing any more baseball activities and transactions.

How will this affect the Toronto Blue Jays? The Blue Jays fully intend to bolster their roster this winter as they will look to contend again in 2027. But the next CBA could play a major role in just exactly how they will be able to build their team in order to do that.

Changes the Blue Jays could have to navigate under a new CBA

Qualifying offers being made to pending free agents

With the qualifying offer period taking place in November, teams are expected to make those offers to players as usual. No qualifying offers expected to be handed out by Toronto this offseason, as per Sportsnet. Players such as George Springer, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer are all likely to be free to test free agency.

The signing of free agents and making trades

Business should proceed as normal in terms of organizations looking to make acquisitions for their roster. However, with baseball activities highly expected to be halted by Dec. 1, some insiders expect plenty of action to take place during the month of November, before any new rules are set within the new CBA.

The tendering of contracts to arbitration-eligible players

The lockout shouldn’t influence teams in any way in tendering contracts to players potentially heading to arbitration. In the case of the Blue Jays, they have eight players that fall into this category: Davis Schneider, Louis Varland, Nathan Lukes, Spencer Arrighetti, Bowden Francis, Josh Smith, Ernie Clement and José Soriano. Toronto will tender contracts to those they believe will be a key part of their future, regardless of the pending lockout.

The MLB Winter Meetings and Draft Lottery

The MLB Winter Meetings and the Draft Lottery typically take place during the first half of December, so both major events could be cancelled if a new deal isn't reached. Usually some of the biggest signings and trades take place when the teams’ GMs meet at the Winter Meetings.

This further encourages all teams, including the Blue Jays, to execute their impactful moves prior to December. Toronto also won’t know where they will be drafting in 2027 until after the CBA is agreed upon, which could impact their future plans on potential draft candidates to consider.

The Rule 5 Draft

The Rule 5 Draft is likely the aspect that will have an effect on the Blue Jays the most. By Nov. 17 at, teams must put Rule 5 eligible players on their 40-man roster to protect them from being selected at the draft, which usually takes place in December.

If a lockout doesn’t occur, the Rule 5 Draft will proceed as normal. But if a lockout occurs, the draft will be cancelled and may not take place this offseason at all.

The Blue Jays must decide if they should approach it with a "business as usual" approach or do they try and get a little bit creative and assume a lockout will occur. The Jays have key top prospects such as Nolan Perry, Gage Stanifer, Daniel Guerra, Jay Harry, Josh Kasevich and others that are Rule 5 eligible this offseason.

To protect a fair number of them, they would need a considerable amount of spots on the 40-man roster to house them. But if Toronto gambles and hopes that a Rule 5 Draft doesn’t take place at all, they could risk putting fewer of those young players on the 40-man list and keep spots open for other players. The downside is, if they do that and the Rule 5 Draft does end up taking place, the Blue Jays will risk losing some of their top prospects.

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