3 Blue Jays prospects who’ve proven they deserve Rule 5 protection, 3 who haven’t

Navigating the Rule 5 protection deadline is one of those offseason roster checkpoints that forces teams to make some uncomfortable decisions. Adding a prospect to the 40-man roster protects him from being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, but it also costs the club a valuable roster spot at a time when free agency, non-tender decisions and offseason trades are all competing for the same real estate.

For the Blue Jays, that makes this year’s group especially interesting. There are a handful of prospects who have done enough in 2026 to force their way into the conversation, and a few others who still look more like calculated risks than must-protect players.

Three Blue Jays prospects who have earned Rule 5 protection, and three who likely have not.

Earned: Peyton Williams

Peyton Williams has done just about everything a player can do to turn himself into a serious 40-man roster conversation. Armed with the best nickname in the minor leagues, the "Iowa Meat Truck" climbed three levels of pro ball this season, moving from Single-A to High-A to Triple-A without stopping at Double-A first. Due to some roster crunches the 25-year-old left-handed hitting first baseman is in Double-A with New Hampshire (as of Sept. 8), but will likely be back up with Buffalo before the season ends.

Across those three levels, Williams has hit 15 home runs while maintaining a 10.8 percent walk rate, a .204 ISO, a .351 on-base percentage, a .470 slugging percentage and a 114 wRC+. That is exactly the kind of power and patience profile that can tempt another club in the Rule 5 Draft, especially if that team believes the bat can play in a bench or platoon role right away.

The Blue Jays obviously have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. locked in at first base, so Williams is not pushing for a starting job there. But Toronto could still use left-handed power insurance, whether at first base, or in the DH mix.

Hasn't earned it: Josh Stephan

Josh Stephan may still be a pitcher the Blue Jays want to develop, but that is not the same thing as saying he needs to occupy a 40-man roster spot right now. The 24-year-old right-hander came over from the Rangers at the deadline in the deal that also brought Josh Smith to Toronto, with Canadian left-hander Adam Macko heading the other way.

In five starts with Triple-A Buffalo, he has posted a 5.97 ERA and 4.82 FIP over 28.2 innings. He has posted a 7.85 K/9 and a .274 opponents’ BABIP, numbers that shouldn't overwhelm anyone.

Leaving Stephan unprotected would not be an indictment of his future potential. It would simply be a bet that another team will not see enough immediate big league pay off to devote a roster spot to him all season.

Has earned it: Josh Kasevich

The 25-year-old shortstop and third baseman has spent all season making good contact, defending multiple infield spots and giving the organization a potential upper-level bench option, unfortunately his path to the majors this season has been crowded.

Andrés Giménez has handled shortstop, Kazuma Okamoto has held down third base, and Toronto has had several players cycle through utility-type roles, including Davis Schneider, Charles McAdoo, Luis Urías, Lenyn Sosa and Josh Smith. That depth has made it difficult for Kasevich to force his way to Toronto, but it also highlights why the Blue Jays may not want to risk losing him for nothing.

MLB Pipeline lists Kasevich as Toronto’s No. 14 prospect, and also projected him to see time in the big leagues this season with a 2026 ETA. He's spent all season with Triple-A Buffalo hitting .287 with a .364 on-base percentage and just an 11.1 percent strikeout rate. Those kinds of numbers could interest other teams who would be happy to try him out on their bench.

Hasn't earned it: TJ Brock

Since the Blue Jays drafted him in the sixth round in 2022, Brock has only managed to pitch one full healthy season, that was when he threw 52.2 innings across High-A and Double-A in 2023. Injuries have slowed him down and he missed all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

A team selecting him in the Rule 5 Draft would need to believe he has not only fully recovered, but has the stuff ready to play at the MLB level. This year, in his return to the mound, he's pitched to an 8.22 ERA and 7.38 FIP although it's been in just 7.2 innings.

Has earned it: Alexis Hernandez

Hernandez is the most interesting name in this group because the Blue Jays originally acquired him through the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft in 2023, taking him out of the Red Sox system. Now, after a strong season of his own, Toronto may have to decide whether he has played well enough to protect from the major league phase.

The 23-year-old outfielder only reached Double-A this year, but Hernandez has put together a season that could make teams do a double take. In 98 games across two levels, he has slashed .299/.388/.497 with a .347 BABIP, 15 home runs, 16 stolen bases and a 133 wRC+. He also brings the flexibility to play all three outfield spots, which helps his case considerably.

The Blue Jays’ outfield picture could change quickly this winter. Jesús Sánchez may be a non-tender candidate, and they will have to consider Myles Straw’s $8-million club option. If Toronto wants affordable outfield depth next season, Hernandez’s mix of power, speed and defensive flexibility could be worth protecting.

Hasn't earned it: Victor Arias

Arias is the clearest contrast to Hernandez. He is also a 23-year-old outfielder who reached Double-A, and he has shown flashes of useful power, including 10 home runs in 83 games with New Hampshire. But the overall offensive profile has not been strong enough to justify protection yet.

Arias’ .227/.278/.387 slash line at Double-A leaves too many questions about how much of the bat would translate against more advanced pitching. MLB Pipeline has him as Toronto's No. 26 prospect but it doesn't feel like anyone is going to jump at the chance to put him in the majors for a full season.

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