Blue Jays may have to make some tough calls in arbitration on these 8 players

Every year during the offseason, MLB teams have a group of players that reach the stages of their careers where they become arbitration eligible. Teams have to decide whether or not to tender them a contract by a deadline. If they can't come to terms, they then head to an arbitration process.

This year, the Blue Jays have eight players that are arbitration eligible: Ernie Clement, José Soriano, Josh Smith, Bowden Francis, Spencer Arrighetti, Louis Varland, Nathan Lukes, and Davis Schneider.

MLB Trade Rumors has release their annual projections for arbitration-eligible players which can be found here. They are projecting the Blue Jays to have around $27-million committed if all eight players go through that process. The question facing the Blue Jays is whether or not they will be looking to bring back all eight players for 2027.

Guaranteed to be tendered: Soriano, Varland, Lukes

Among the list of names, Soriano, Varland, and Lukes are guaranteed to get their contracts tendered. Both Soriano and Varland are also extension-worthy candidates and could get a few years added on to buy them out of their arbitration years and possibly a year or two of their free agency years.

Soriano, acquired from the Angels at the trade deadline is projected to make $5.6M. Despite a so-so start to Soriano's Blue Jays tenure, he will have a full offseason under the organization's watch. With their ability to develop pitching, there is still a lot to be excited about with the 28-year-old.

Varland had a breakout season, taking over the closer's role. He dominated the league, recording a 1.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while registering 35 saves. Varland is projected to earn $3.8M and is worth every penny.

Lukes is projected to earn $2.1M and with his exceptional defense and steady presence in the batters box, this almost feels like an affordable steal for the Blue Jays. Depending on whether or not the Blue Jays make additions to the outfield, Addison Barger and Anthony Santander are set to return in 2027, meaning Lukes could find himself once again in a platoon type role. Still, the 32-year-old hit 10 home runs, with a .715 OPS and 102 wRC+ with a 2.2 fWAR.

Likely to be tendered: Arrighetti and Francis

Arrighetti is projected to make $1.9M and despite his struggles after being acquired from the Astros, he will serve as rotational depth. For a team that struggled with pitcher health in 2026, using a franchise-record 40 pitchers, they will need to hang on to as many useable arms as they can get their hands on.

Francis missed all of 2026 as he underwent Tommy John surgery in February. He is projected to make $1.3M in 2027, but will most likely miss Opening Day while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. But just like Arrighetti, there is no sense cutting loose an affordable arm at this stage.

Blue Jays could have a difficult decision on their hands with three notable players in Josh Smith, Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider

Non-tender candidates: Smith, Clement, Schneider

Smith, Clement, and Schneider each have interesting cases of whether or not they should be tendered a contract.

Smith was acquired in from the Texas Rangers, and in 35 games with the Blue Jays. He hit .184/.276/.408 with a 90 wRC+. While he managed to hit five home runs in a small sample, it came at the expense of a 30.3% strikeout rate.

Smith is projected to earn $3.7M and to pay that much for a utility bat who struggled to hit and is an average defender at best, it may be a bit costly. Espeically when the Blue Jays have an abundance of cheaper options including Charles McAdoo and guys waiting to get their call up like Josh Kasevich and Jay Harry. If the Blue Jays believe that Smith can bounce back offensively though, then it is a worthwhile investment.

Despite an All-Star first half from Clement, he struggled mightily in the second half and it would not be a major surprise if Clement is non-tendered, especially if the Blue Jays land an upgrade at second base.

Clement is projected to earn $7.6M in 2027. If the Blue Jays were to find an upgrade at second base, Clement becomes an expensive utility bat who would not play every day and the Blue Jays would be better off offering a two-year, lower AAV deal. If they do not find an upgrade, then he is affordable despite the below-average contributions offensively.

After a promising debut in 2023 where Schneider hit .276/.404/.603 in 35 games, he has struggled to find his footing since. Strikeouts and swing and miss have been big issues for him in the Majors. In his career, the lowest rates he had on both were 26.4% and 28.5%, respectively.

Schneider is projected to earn $1.3M and has one option remaining. McAdoo was called up this season and showed he can play the same positions as Schneider and then some, meaning Schneider he may be buried in the depth chart and would be an expensive Triple-A bat.

If the Blue Jays were to tender contracts to all their players, they would be committing roughly $27.3M in arbitration contracts. For eight players who vary from every day starring roles to suitable depth, this is a comfortable position for the Blue Jays to be in, but they don't have to be married to this.

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