This hypothetical Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract is right in the Blue Jays' wheelhouse

This hypothetical deal would be a discount for Toronto.
Miami Marlins v Toronto Blue Jays
Miami Marlins v Toronto Blue Jays | Mark Blinch/GettyImages

The regular season hasn't even gotten here and there's no shortage of storylines around Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Where it's talk about a trade, contract extension, or his position in the field, it seems like every day always brings about a new conversation about the slugging first baseman. And if there's one thing that all the discourse around Guerrero has proven, it's that the only for Toronto to end the talk is to secure a long-term deal with the slugging first baseman.

But for that to happen, the Blue Jays front office and Guerrero would need to come to an agreement on a contract that both parties feel is fair.

While it's not clear how much Guerrero would want in a deal, Forbes' Daniel R. Epstein recently hypothesized that Guerrero could land a 12-year, $480 million contract in free agency, which would be good news for the Blue Jays. While Epstein's hypothetical contract doesn't come based off sourced reporting, Epstein feels it's a fair amount given the free agent market and Guerrero's production.

Not only is would that contract be good news because it's less than Juan Soto's $765 million contact, but it's also a number that the Blue Jays seem willing to spend. Toronto made it to the end of the race for Juan Soto, so it's clear they were ready to spend $700+ million for him. This contract would be a discount.

Toronto needs to keep Guerrero locked down for as long as possible, and that would get even more difficult in free agency since they'd be competing against so many other big market clubs. The Yankees and Red Sox appear to be two of his biggest suitors, which would make his potential departure sting even more.

The Blue Jays need to find a way to keep Guerrero in Toronto long-term

Guerrero coming off a career year at the plate that resulted in him landing a record-setting arbitration settlement of $28.5 million. He finished last year with 30 home runs with a wRC+ of 165 and an OPS of .940. If he puts together another season like that, his new contract could be in the $600+ million range.

On Thursday, Guerrero broke his silence on what he feels his value is, as he said that the final extension offer his agents gave the Blue Jays was less than $600 million.

With that, it's likely that Guerrero's team was looking for an extension right around the projected $480 million number that Epstein projects he'll get in free agency.

A projected contract of $480 million is already expensive, but there's a decent chance that Guerrero's price tag could end up going up even more after this season.

The Blue Jays need to do everything they can to keep Guerrero in Toronto long-term, whether that's through an extension this season or through free agency in the offseason — regardless of how much it costs.

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