Could the Blue Jays deal Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the trade deadline?

Will Vladdy finish the season with the Blue Jays?
Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees | Adam Hunger/GettyImages

After an offseason filled with rumors, posturing and cryptic Instagram stories, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. annouced on Tuesday that he and the Blue Jays had failed to reach an agreement on a contract extension, which all but confirms that the 25-year-old will enter free agency this offseason after seven MLB seasons.

And, according to a new report from ESPN insider Jeff Passan, there's a chance that Guerrero finishes his seventh MLB season with a team other than the Blue Jays.

"Toronto could explore a trade for Guerrero, who would warrant one of the biggest returns in recent memory," Passan wrote. "The Blue Jays, sources said, are more inclined to start the season with Guerrero in their lineup and reassess the possibility of a trade as the July deadline approaches."

Blue Jays could 'reasses' the possiblity of trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at trade deadline

If there truly is no chance that the Blue Jays will be able to sign Guerrero to an extension, then it's only right for general manager Ross Atkins and president Mark Shapiro to explore a trade for Guerrero. That doesn't mean they should just take one for the sake of taking one, however.

Trading Guerrero would impact the team on plenty of levels.

The first factor is the impact to the on the field product. Guerrero has been worth 21.5 bWAR since he made his debut in 2019 and is a four-time All-Star who has quickly become one of the biggest faces in baseball. Trading him away would be a death blow to Toronto's lineup.

And then there's the off the field impact. As mentioned above, Guerrero's one of the sport's biggest names, and is up there with Roy Halladay as the best homegrown talent in team history. He's also one of Canada's biggest stars thanks to his dad's dominance while playing with the Montreal Expos.

And, according to Guerrero, his dad's career served as a motivating factor in his negotiations.

"My dad played a lot of years, and he never won the World Series," Guerrero said, per Passan. "And I always say my personal goal is to win a World Series and give the ring to my dad. So that's all I'm looking for."

All this sets up a season where every decision the Blue Jays make will be viewed through the lens of how it impacts things with Guerrero. If Toronto catches fire early, then all the conversation will likely be around whether it's worth it for Toronto to add to the team for one final year of Guerrero. If they struggle out of the gate, then expect the trade buzz to reach a fever pitch.

It'll be interesting to see how Guerrero's trade market shakes out. While teams would only be trading for him for half half a season, it should still be fairly easy for Toronto to start a bidding war. Not only is Guerrero an otherworldly talent, but teams will also be eager to get him in their building to get a head start on the free agent recruitment process.

Guerrero is reportedly seeking a contract between the $400 and $500 million range. The largest contract ever handed out to a first baseman is the eight-year, $248 million extension Miguel Cabrera signed with the Tigers.

And while that contract value will likely put Guerrero out of some team's price range, he still should have no shortage of suitors in free agency. The Mets could be in the market for a first baseman if Pete Alonso opts out of his contract. The Yankees have an obvious hole (if Guerrero would go there). The Red Sox have an open contention window and a need for a first baseman.

Atkins didn't have much to say Tuesday when he was asked about the possibility of trading Guerrero.

"I mean obviously if you have an extension you decrease the likelihood, but we’re focused on him being a Toronto Blue Jay and winning the World Series," he said. "We feel like we have a great team and feel like Vladdy is a big part of it and will remain a big part of it."

Shapiro spoke after Atkins and said that the Blue Jays "stay[ed] disciplined" in their contract talks with Guerrero Jr., and that they want to have him in Toronto. And while that may be the case, it'll be tougher for them to stay disciplined in trade talks when every Guerrero Jr. at-bat brings the Blue Jays closer to the end.

In speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Guerrero Jr. said that part of the reason he held the press conference was because he "didn't want to talk" about his contract extension during the season. And while that may be true, the lack of an extension has just opened up another conversation that will define the Blue Jays season.

“At the end of the day, I know my value, and I’ll stick with it," Guerrero said.

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