The Blue Jays could pivot from Tucker to Bellinger and sign this reported contract

The Toronto Blue Jays have been closely linked with free-agent outfielder Kyle Tucker all offseason. With his market slow to develop, until recently, the organization may be better suited to pivot to Cody Bellinger, who has been offered a more affordable contract than the one Tucker is expected to sign. 

Tucker is reported to be seeking at least a seven-year deal in the $300-$400 million range, and reports have recently surfaced that the New York Mets have offered him a deal that will give him $50 million a season. While the Blue Jays haven’t publicly balked at that price tag, they will need to be careful with how they do any more spending this winter.

The Blue Jays could pivot from Tucker to Bellinger and sign this reported contract

The team's payroll is just over $300, meaning any signing would subject them to a 90% Competitive Balance Tax (CBT). They have surpassed the 30% tax levied on teams with a payroll of $244 million or more, so the front office needs to be confident that the next player they sign can take them over the top. 

The Blue Jays have been interested in Bellinger over the past few offseasons, and he may be a better fit than Tucker, as that would allow the franchise more financial flexibility going forward. USA Today journalist Bob Nightengale posted on X on Monday that the New York Yankees have offered Bellinger a five-year contract worth between $155 and $160 million without deferrals. The post goes on to mention that Bellinger is seeking a contract length of at least seven years, and that this standoff is continuing with one month until spring training reporting dates.

If it sounds like Tucker and Bellinger are getting similar advice, it’s because they likely are. They share an agent, Scott Boras, who’s known for maximizing his clients' contracts and also for grinding the market to a halt. Given this tight timeline, the Blue Jays should consider offering a similar deal to what the Yankees reportedly put on the table for Bellinger.

Perhaps they could make it sweeter and round up to match the figures Alex Bregman received in his contract with the Chicago Cubs, five years and $175 million, or include several performance-based incentives to make the pact more lucrative. As much as Boras and his clients want to receive maximum compensation, would they be willing to miss the start of camp to get it?

From a baseball perspective, there’s no doubting Bellinger’s fit on the Blue Jays, even with the recent acquisition of corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto. He can play all three outfield positions well, fill in at first base, and give the lineup another left-handed power hitter to go with Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho. Now all they have to do is submit a respectable offer and hope to pry him from the Yankees.