Key outfielder returning to the Blue Jays on a deal that was above projected numbers

The Toronto Blue Jays and Daulton Varsho have avoided going to arbitration. That's thanks to the two sides coming together on Thursday (Dec. 8) to ink a deal for the 2026 season.

While it's a good contract for both sides, if you were to look at some of the estimated arbitration numbers, Varsho signed for a bit more money than it was originally thought he was going to get.

Key outfielder returning to the Blue Jays on a deal that was above projected numbers

It's not a hugely significant amount, but when the Blue Jays have already spent a record amount of money for this franchise in one winter, finding a little bit of savings would have probably been welcomed by the front office. However, the deal is for $10.75 million while original projections had Varsho getting $9.7 - a one million dollar difference give or take a few thousand.

At this point the Blue Jays have reached agreements with three of the four players that were arbitration eligible and all three came in slightly above the projected numbers. Tyler Heineman got $1.2 million (projected $1.1), Ernie Clement received $4.6 million (projected $4.3) and now Varsho comes in at $10.75. For Varsho, this deal is the most significant of the three as this is his last year being arbitration eligible.

Varsho is set to hit the free agent market at the end of 2026 and along with George Springer, that would leave two big holes in the Blue Jays roster going into 2027. There's one side of the fan base that would love to see the Blue Jays extend Varsho right now for at least a few seasons to avoid that potential loss.

Varsho, who will be 30 in July, will be going into a relatively weak free agent class, especially if a couple of the bigger names stay with their teams due to a club option. Among his outfield peers (according to MLB.com) are: Ronald Acuña Jr. (club option), Luis Robert Jr. (club option), Randy Arozarena, George Springer, Adolis García, Trent Grisham, Nick Castellanos, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Cedric Mullins (mutual option), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (club option), Victor Robles (club option), Taylor Ward, Ramón Laureano, Lane Thomas, Rob Refsnyder, JJ Bleday.

There's an argument to be made that Varsho would be one of the top guys available among that group, especially if he puts together a good season. His defence alone could be worth paying for and that's where the other side of the argument comes in. Some Blue Jays fans feel like they've seen enough of Varsho to be ready to move on, despite the incredible defence.

While Varsho has produced a combined 32 Outs Above Average and is +65 in Defensive Runs Saved in his three years with the Blue Jays, his offence has been far from consistent. He's been incredibly streaky and the overall numbers have lagged. He's slashed .221/.288/.428 with an OPS of .716. He's also racked up 349 strikeouts with his strikeout percentages climbing each season he's played in Toronto. Although, he has averaged 20 home runs a season and last year he produced a wRC+ of 123 and was worth 7.5 offensive fWAR, the highest of his career, albeit in only 71 games due to various lengthy injuries.

Varsho also faded in the playoffs and in the moments the Blue Jays really needed some big hits from him. He batted a fantastic .438 with two home runs and seven hits in the four game ALDS win over the Yankees. But then had just one home run and ten hits combined in the next two series. In didn't hurt the Blue Jays in the ALCS as they beat the Seattle Mariners in seven games. But in the World Series Varsho went a combined 1-for-13 in the final three games and didn't get on base in Games 6 or 7.

Yes, that is a very small sample size and a players entire contribution over the course of the season can't be determined on what he did in the final three games of the year, but it is an argument some Blue Jays fans are making as to why Toronto shouldn't invest long term in him. As well as much as his glove work remains solid in centerfield, his arm strength has taken a hit thanks to offseason shoulder surgery.

But with a ne $10.75 million contract, an eye on free agency, and a fully healthy offseason, maybe Varsho shows everyone why he'll be one of the top free agents of next years class.