3 reasons the Blue Jays still have what it takes to contend, 2 why they do not

We're just past the two-thirds point of the season and with the trade deadline now out of the way, the Blue Jays essentially now have the roster which will pursue a playoff place. Entering Saturday's slate of games, they hold a 2.5 game advantage for the third and final wild card spot in the AL.

It's a nerve-racking time for everyone concerned with the Blue Jays, with four teams within 5.0 games of them in the standings. Anything could happen over the final two months of the regular season.

This leads to the question of what it will take, for the Blue Jays to secure qualification for the playoffs? Here are three reasons why they will continue to contend, along with two reasons why they won't:

NB - All statistics up to and including August 4.

The bullpen

As the saying goes, nobody is perfect. However, you only have to take one look at the Blue Jays' bullpen, to be convinced it's pretty damn close.

To start off with, we're talking about the likes of Tim Mayza and Erik Swanson. There's also Jay Jackson, whose been lights out this season and has just been activated from the family medical emergency list.

How about Jordan Romano, Trevor Richards and Chad Green? All three are currently on the injured list, but are expected to be fit to return sooner than later. (Admittedly the Blue Jays have to be more cautious with Green, who is working his way back from Tommy John Surgery.)

There's also the recently acquired Jordan Hicks, who was one of the best available relievers on the trade market. Hicks arrived in Toronto not long after his teammate from the Cardinals, Génesis Cabrera, a left-handed pitcher with a lot of raw talent and potential.

There's Yimi Garcia, who while not as lauded as some of his fellow relievers in Toronto, has proved to be a reliable and durable member of the bullpen. And if Nate Pearson can get over his recent blip after an outstanding start to the season, the Blue Jays are set.

Statistically speaking, the Blue Jays bullpen is ranked seventh-best in ERA so far in 2023. They are also tied-sixth in WHIP, 12th in batting average, 11th in strikeouts and third-best in walks.

As much as this collectively sounds good, you know the bullpen is capable of more. Aided by the shot of new blood on the roster and players returning from injuries, this unit should indeed perform even better down the stretch.

Defence

Defence might not be as 'sexy' as offence and pitching, but it's still a vitally important component. And the Blue Jays are one of the best in this department.

We previously wrote about the Blue Jays' plans for total defensive domination. Recently their play in the field hasn't going unnoticed, with them featuring heavily in a MLB defensive All-Star team.

In this respect, the Blue Jays are worthy of any praise they receive. On a basic level, the defence's successful play is evidenced by allowing the sixth-fewest runs in the Majors.

Delve deeper, and one of the main reasons for the Blue Jays' success is Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). As per The Fielding Bible, they lead the Majors with a +55, with the second-place Brewers at +44.

On an individual level, Daulton Varsho is at least partly making up for his unproductive bat, tied-first among all players with 17 DRS. Kevin Kiermaier -- who's in the running statistically to be the best outfielder of all time -- is seventh with 13 DRS, while Matt Chapman and Alejandro Kirk are tied-eighth with 12 DRS.

It's no surprise to see this success extend to DWAR, with Kiermaier and Varsho both leading all outfielders with a 1.6 DWAR. Chapman is tied-second at third base with a 1.5, while Kirk is tied-fifth at catcher with a 1.0.

In terms of simple ball handling and security, the Blue Jays are tied-eighth best in fielding percentage and tied-ninth in fewest errors. They are also ranked second with a 4.7 UZR/150. (As per Fan Graphs, UZR is described as the best fielding metric publicly available.)

We could continue, but you get the idea about how good the Blue Jays have been defensively. It is a consistent source of positive production and should continue to play a significant role in the quest for October baseball.

The rotation

Some could conceivably make the argument that the rotation is a reason for concern, due to the uncertainty over the fifth starter. Certainly, Hyun Jin Ryu's first start in over a year was a disaster, while it's still tough to predict what to expect from Alek Manoah long-term.

However, even allowing for these factors, the Blue Jays' rotation is a reason why they will still contend. Consider their overall numbers, even with Ryu and Manoah added to the equation.

The Blue Jays are fifth-best in the Majors in ERA and tied-11th in batting average. They are second in strikeouts and have proven durable, with the fifth-most innings pitched.

Admittedly it doesn't all make for positive reading, highlighted by ranking just 17th in WHIP. Overall however, the Blue Jays rotation is one of the better ones in the Majors as a whole, and certainly one of the strongest in the AL specifically.

Individually speaking, Kevin Gausman is the staff ace. He is ninth in the Majors among all starters in ERA, has the second-most strikeouts and is the team-leader in WAR.

José Berríos has enjoyed a renaissance this season, and is looking more like the version who was selected to two All-Star Games. In fact he's actually projected to record the lowest ERA of his eight years in the Majors (currently standing at 3.31) and is second on the team in WAR.

Remaining on the narrative of enjoying a renaissance, the same applies to Yusei Kikuchi, who no longer is so unpredictable on the mound. He's already set a single-season best with nine wins and is on course for the same in ERA (3.67) -- he's never before finished below 4.0 -- and WHIP (1.275).

Finally we have Chris Bassitt, who admittedly isn't having his best season, but isn't exactly pitching poorly either overall. Ultimately, if he's your third (or fourth) starter in the rotation, you're in a good position.

Overall, there's plenty to like about this rotation. And if Manoah can get back to even two-thirds of his dominance from last season, the Blue Jays will truly be set.

Runners in scoring position

Generally speaking, the Blue Jays have one of the best hitting teams in all of baseball. They're third in the Majors in hits, tied-fifth in batting average and ninth in OBP.

Unfortunately however for their fans, the team seems to almost lose this ability to hit the ball when runners are on base. Specifically, they more often than not fail with runners in scoring position (RISP).

Consider that the Blue Jays are third-worst in the Majors for batting average with RISP. Along these lines, it doesn't help that they are also fifth-worst when it comes to strikeouts in this scenario.

Breaking it down further, the Blue Jays are fourth-worst in batting average with RISP, when they have no outs. They are only slightly better with one and two outs, at tied-10th worst and seventh-worst respectively.

On an individual basis, it will come as little surprise to find Varsho is the worst of all regular Blue Jays players with RISP (.175 batting average). Second-worst, is Santiago Espinal (.178).

Slightly more surprising is Brandon Belt, who is next-worst on the Blue Jays (.180). As much as this isn't one of his best seasons, it's still concerning when your main DH is also struggling in scoring opportunities.

When considering all this, it's no wonder the Blue Jays are ranked just 15th in runs scored. For some reason there is a collective mental block with this team, when it comes to clutch situations.

Talking of clutch situations, we're now approaching the business end of the regular season. The Blue Jays quite simply have to improve with RISP or it will conceivably cost them a playoff spot, especially in the even more than usual ultra-competitive AL East.