Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a dark horse MVP candidate?

At the end of May, Aaron Judge was already the 2025 American League MVP. No ifs, ands, or buts about it, the Yankees superstar was slashing .398/.490/.778 with an OPS of 1.268. He led the Majors with a 233 wRC+, he was second in the Majors with 18 home runs while his BABIP was a ridiculous .467. Judge was in a league of his own through the first two months, while the Yankees were leading the AL East by seven games over the Rays, and had a run differential in the +100's.

But an interesting thing happened at the end of May. Judge and the Yankees started to lose momentum. Cal Raleigh's name started getting thrown around in MVP chatter as he was keeping pace, and then surpassing Judge in the power numbers - doing so as a catcher. The Yankees as a team went into a slide and since the end of May have gone 31-35 and are now 5.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East (through Sunday, Aug. 17).

The Blue Jays on the other hand have surged since the end of May, going 42-23 and after taking over the lead in the AL East in a direct head-to-head showdown with the Yankees on July 3, the Blue Jays have been in first place. In fact since July 18, their lead has never been less than three games over the second placed team in the division, whether it be the Red Sox or the Yankees.

While the Blue Jays have done most of that damage as a team - it's getting harder to ignore Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s talents and contributions to the Blue Jays since the very start of 2025. While much has been made about his lack of power production, Guerrero has shown that he is more likely a comparable to Miguel Cabrera than say an Albert Pujols or a Prince Fielder.

Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a dark horse MVP candidate?

Vladdy is going to get his home runs, but he's probably not going to post the big-flashy home run totals that catch everyones eyes. His 48 home run campaign of 2021 is probably the outlier - but there is nothing wrong with a guy that can reach 25-30 every year while hitting the ball really, really hard to every part of the field, and do it on a consistent basis, while also limiting his strikeouts.

While he had a decent start to the season, he really took off once the calendar flipped to June. He's slashed .314/.406/.551 with a .957 OPS. He's hit 12 home runs, driven in 41 runners had has just 35 strikeouts compared to 34 walks in 54 games.

Judge on the other hand, while still putting up power numbers in that time with 18 home runs, has hit just .259/.398/.591 with a .988 OPS in 56 games - as he hit the 10-day IL at the end of July.

Judges numbers overall still exceed Guerrero's. The Yankees right fielder is leading the league with a 6.5 bWAR, as well as topping all players in these categories; walks (83) runs (95), batting average (.333), OBP (.445), SLG (.689), OPS (1.135), OPS+ (210), total bases (282), intentional walks (28).

By all accounts and purposes, when it comes down to it, Judge should probably be the MVP. But the father the Yankees fall back and the higher the Blue Jays climb, there should be a nod given to Guerrero's efforts for what he has done for the team this season.

At the very least, taking away MVP votes from Judge and giving them to Guerrero would certainly add more fuel to the fire that's been burning between the Blue Jays and the Yankees already this season.