Can Blue Jays Ride Vladimir Guerrero’s Hot Streak to a division title?

The Toronto Blue Jays solidified Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as their face of the franchise when they signed him to a franchise record 14-year, $500 million extension earlier this season. Lately, he has been playing like a guy who deserves every single penny. But will it be enough for the Blue Jays to capture their first AL East title since 2015?

Can Blue Jays Ride Vladimir Guerrero’s Hot Streak to a division title?

If there was ever a time for Guerrero to show his leadership on the field, it would be now. The Blue Jays have one of the toughest schedules in the division to end the month of August, with September also potentially being a slog for the Jays. They have games against playoff contenders including the Cubs, the Rangers and the Brewers. Meanwhile they will also have to contend with the Reds, the Yankees, the Astros and eventually what could be a massive three game series against the Red Sox in September.

They are sitting in first place in the AL East with a 4.5 lead over those Red Sox and are projected win the AL East with FanGraphs giving Toronto a 77.3% chance of making that a reality. And while they have used an entire team approach to get to this point, Guerrero's surge in the second half could increase those odds even further.

By fWAR Guerrero has been the best first baseman in the entire league this season with a 3.6 mark. The only other first basemen to have a fWAR over three are the A's Nick Kurtz (3.3) and the Braves Matt Olson (3.0). Notable names who are having really good season but have yet to surpass that number are the Dodgers Freddie Freeman (2.4), the Phillies Bryce Harper (2.4) and the Tigers Spencer Torkelson (2.1).

While Vladdy's 26.9 offensive fWAR drives that number, it's also the best offensive fWAR in the game with players like Pete Alonso of the Mets (21.2) Freeman (18.1), Harper (17.6) and Josh Naylor of the Mariners (15.8) trailing Guerrero in that category. He also leads this group with a 146 wRC+, a wOBA of .381, and an OBP of .396.

Getting on-base hasn't been the issue for Guerrero at all this season. Right from Opening Day, he set a precedent for being patient and his 13.3% walk rate is the second best among all first basemen, while his 13.8% strikeout rate is fourth. Those are elite pitch recognition numbers, no matter what position you play, but the fact that Vladdy is doing this as a first basemen who can also hit for power is incredibly impressive.

Now, the power is the big question. That was something Vladdy 'struggled' with at the beginning of the season. He had eight home runs through the end of May in his first 256 plate appearances and had an OPS of .815. Since June 1, over his next 264 plate appearances, he hit 11 over that span but brought his OPS up to .949. Meantime, his clutch stats have been exactly what you want to see from your core piece.

With runners in scoring position, Guerrero's walk rate goes up to 16.8% and strikeout rate goes down to 11.8%. He has a wOBA of .370 in those situations with a 139 wRC+. When the team is ahead in the game, Guerrero is slashing .307/.378/523 but when the team is behind his numbers tick up to .315/.425/.557 - signifying his importance to the Blue Jays league leading 37 comeback wins. He's also delivered in some big moments, including hitting a game tying home run against the Dodgers on Sunday.

On July 1, Guerrero went 0-5 with two weak groundouts, a pop out, a strikeout and a 99.4 mph line out. He then proceeded to reach base safely in the next 31 games. The Blue Jays went 20-11 over this span in which Guerrero had 42 hits in 122 at-bats with six home runs and 22 walks with 20 strikeouts. He slashed .344/.444/.574 with an OPS of 1.018

The Blue Jays have never won the AL East division during Guerrero's time with the team, but as long as he stays hot that is a stat that could soon be erased.