Vladdy poised for a big stretch run with Blue Jays

Fresh off his fifth All-Star game appearance, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be looking to guide the Toronto Blue Jays back to the post-season. With his contract in hand, the $500-million man has cemented himself as the face of the franchise for the next 14-years and the spotlight will be shining brightly on him as the Jays get set to begin their post All-Star break run. 

With the team in first place of the AL East and owning the third best record in the American League, Toronto are in the driver's seat of their own destiny and Guerrero’s performance will determine if they are destined for post-season success. 

Vladdy poised for a big stretch run with Blue Jays

His 2025 season performance has so-far been slightly above-league average, which for some fans feels like a disappointment. Some of the numbers haven’t popped off the page, with just 12 home runs in 350 at-bats and a .434 slug that ranks 71st among all qualified hitters. 

However, what Guerrero has done this year, is shown an elite ability to recognize pitches and not over extend himself to often. His 56 walks are tied for 11th in the league while his 59 strikeouts are the 34th lowest among all qualified hitters, and among primary first basemen only Luis Arraez (11), Josh Naylor (46), Nolan Schanuel (47), Ryan O’Hearn (52), and Ty France (57) have fewer.

His chase percentage is 20.8, ranked in the 89th percentile and his walk rate is 13.5% which puts him in the 92nd percentile. It’s the best walk rate to date in his career and while Vladdy isn’t making all that money just to walk to first every at-bat, he has completely bought into the philosophy of trusting the guys around him to get the job done. 

““When you trust your teammates especially in the lineup, whoever is either in front or behind you, it makes your job easier. If they're not pitching to me, if they walk me, I'm OK, because whoever is hitting behind me, I trust that teammate. That allows us to be who we are right now,” Guerrero told Sportsnet reporter Shi Davedi. 

That’s also not to say he’s just been up there, holding the bat on his shoulders. Vladdy has been making consistently good and hard contact all season. His max exit velocity of 120.4 m.p.h. is one of the hardest hit balls all season, while his average exit velocity is 92.8 m.p.h., is within the top eight percent in the Majors.

He has an expected batting average of .315 and an XWOBA of .402. The batting average ranks in the top one percent and the XWOBA is in the top four percent, so with a little luck after the break, Vladdy’s .277 batting average and .818 OPS should start creeping higher as well. 

And if trends stay true, Vladdy could absolutely go off in the second half like he did last season. In 63 games after the All-Star break, Vladdy slashed .376/.450/.678 with an OPS of 1.127. He hit 16 home runs, 23 doubles, scored 50 runs and drove in 46. He also walked more than he struck out with 31 base on balls to 28 K’s. 

The Blue Jays will need all of that from Vladdy and more as they try to fend off virtually everyone in their division outside of the Orioles. They hold a two game lead over New York, three game lead over Boston and Tampa Bay are five and a half games behind - making it still anyone's division. 

But if Vladdy is going, the Blue Jays are going. In their 53 wins this season which Vladdy has started, he has hit .324/.415/.498 with eight home runs and 67 hits in 207 at-bats. In the 41 games he has played in where the Blue Jays have lost, he has hit .210/.341/.343. It’s fairly obvious that every team the Blue Jays face will know these stats, and they will be looking for ways to neutralize Guerrero Jr., which makes it even more important for him to not only have a hot second half, but for him to continue buying in to that philosophy of trusting those around him.