Grading the Blue Jays' Last Five First Round Picks

From Auston Matthews and Scottie Barnes to the likes of Vince Carter and Wendel Clark, Toronto sports fans have seen plenty of bankable stars obtained over the years through drafting. And while the Toronto Blue Jays have had no shortage of talented players, less than you'd expect have actually been drafted by the team - and even fewer were obtained in the first round.

Vladdy Guerrero Jr. was signed as an international free agent, other stars like Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Joe Carter and Robbie Alomar were acquired through trades - and while homegrown players like Bo Bichette and Kevin Pillar *were* drafted by the team, they weren't first round picks. While it's certainly possible to succeed in baseball without a strong drafting record, it's a lot more expensive - as noted by the Jays having the fifth-highest payroll in the league.

Now that this year's draft is over, JoJo Parker has been selected, and the trade deadline is just a couple of weeks away, past drafts will likely be a popular talking point, as contending teams decide which prized prospects they're willing to part with in order to improve their rosters. So, how have the Jays done in recent years when it comes eyeing and selecting young talent early in the draft?

Grading the Blue Jays' Last Five First Round Picks

2024: RHP Trey Yesavage
Drafted: 20th overall
MLB Prospect Ranking: 55
Team Prospect Ranking: 2

To say that the Pennsylvania native has impressed the Blue Jays' brass this season would be an understatement. The soon-to-be 22-year-old has rocketed through the minor league system, already earning a call-up to AA New Hampshire.

While he's struggled through five starts with the Fisher Cats so far, Yesavage has allowed just 37 hits in nearly 68 innings while striking out 111. He also earned a spot in Saturday's MLB Futures Game, striking out the only batter he faced.

If he continues to make strides, and the pitching staff needs a boost, Yesavage could find himself called up to add some firepower to the bullpen. Of course, he could also be the centrepiece of a package to acquire some star power at the deadline.

2023: SS Arjun Nimmala
Drafted: 20th overall
MLB Prospect Ranking: 48
Team Prospect Ranking: 1

It's been a while since the Jays had a teenage position player prospect to dream on - you'd probably have to go back to 2018, when some guy named Vladdy was tearing up minor league pitching.

And while Arjun Nimmala doesn't have the cache (or a Hall of Fame father) that Guerrero does, he's impressed scouts enough to remain the club's top prospect. After getting off to a blistering start to his season in High-A Vanvouver, slugging 5 homers in his first 20 games with a .903 OPS, he's got just 6 homers in 58 games since then, with an OPS of .684. His defence is also a work in progress, with 27 errors committed at shortstop over the past two seasons.

Moving a young asset like Nimmala would have been unthinkable at the start of the season. But with the Jays right in the thick of the AL East race, the Tampa native is likely their best trading chip.

2022: LHP Brandon Barriera
Drafted: 23rd overall
MLB Prospect Ranking: N/A
Team Prospect Ranking: 13

Drafted at age 18, Barriera was the first high school pitcher that the Blue Jays had selected in the first round since drafting (and failing to sign) Phil Bickford back in 2013, and the first southpaw selected in that round since Matt Smoral in 2012.

Right in the midst of Alek Manoah's All-Star season (2019, first round), at the height of his confidence and swagger, Barriera turned heads at the draft when he told MLB Network that the 22 teams that didn't draft him would regret it.

How quickly things change - Manoah has been significantly humbled since then, while Barriera struggled through 2023, then threw less than two innings last year before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

He returned just over a month ago, and has plenty of work to do - he's allowed 9 earned runs in less than 6 innings, walking more batters than he's struck out. While it's still too early to determine if the Blue Jays have buyer's remorse for the now-21-year-old, it's safe to say that the Orioles have no regrets about passing on Barriera for Jackson Holliday.

2021: RHP Gunnar Hoglund
Drafted: 19th overall
MLB Prospect Ranking: N/A
Team Prospect Ranking: 11

Born in Dunedin, and sharing his surname with a former line-mate of Mats Sundin, Hoglund seemed to have the makings (albeit... shallow ones) of a fan favourite in Toronto. But it was not meant to be, as he was one of four prospects shipped off to the A's in exchange for slick-fielding third baseman Matt Chapman.

Hoglund made his big-league debut back in May, fanning seven in six strong innings - but struggled in each subsequent start - eventually allowing 8 earned runs in six innings against the Blue Jays, before being shut down for the rest of the season with a hip injury.

While Hoglund still has plenty of potential, the Jays may look back at this draft and wonder how they missed out on the likes of Jackson Merrill (27th), Tyler Black (33rd), Andrew Abbott (53rd) or James Wood (62nd).

2020: SS Austin Martin
Drafted: 5th overall
MLB Prospect Ranking: N/A
Team Prospect Ranking: N/A

Martin represented significant promise for a team that was selecting in the top five of the draft for the first time since Vernon Wells was taken 5th overall back in 1997. A standout at Vanderbilt, Martin had a hit over .400 in his sophomore year, leading the Commodores to a victory in the College World Series. By 2021, he was already putting up decent numbers in AA, earning a spot in the All-Star Futures Game.

But by the time he was packaged in the Jose Berrios trade, scouts had already soured on Martin's potential, raising concerns about his lack of power. After making his debut with the Twins last year and playing in 93 games, Martin began this season in AAA, and has fallen off the prospect lists.

Ultimately, turning a depreciating asset into Berrios was a shrewd move, but even more so would have been to select one of Garrett Crochet (11th), Pete Crow-Armstrong (19th), Austin Wells (28th) or even Alec Burleson (70th).

First Round Hits:

While there have ultimately been more duds than studs, the Blue Jays have found some key players in the first round over the years.

1978: Lloyd Moseby (2)
1981: John Cerutti (21)
1988: Ed Sprague (25)
1991: Shawn Green (16)
1992: Shannon Stewart (19)
1993: Chris Carpenter (15)
1995: Roy Halladay (17)
1996: Billy Koch (4)
1997: Vernon Wells (5)
1999: Alex Rios (19)
2003: Aaron Hill (13)
2005: Ricky Romero (6)
2012: Marcus Stroman (22)
2014: Jeff Hoffman (9)
2017: Nate Pearson (28)
2019: Alek Manoah (11)