Creating a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension with Blue Jays that could actually work

Other than all of the noise around Roki Sasaki, which appears to be reaching a conclusion, most of the buzz around the Toronto Blue Jays centers around the future of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in Toronto. The answer to what is going to happen with him not only is impacting the Blue Jays' pursuit of Pete Alonso and others, but it also begs some questions as to what a feasible extension with Guerrero Jr. would even look like.

Here is what we know right now. The Blue Jays want to keep Guerrero Jr. and previously made an offer that was quickly dismissed as being at least $100 million away from what he was looking for. We also know that the two sides haven't talked seriously about an extension since December, but are expected to resume talks soon ahead of Guerrero Jr.'s spring training deadline.

Right now, hope that Toronto will actually be able to get an extension with Guerrero Jr. done is low, but the Blue Jays are going to conduct a full-court press to try, and there is a framework that could work for everyone involved.

Blue Jays should at least start with this framework for a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension

Let's get one thing out of the way: any hope that a ~$400 million extension will be enough to keep Guerrero Jr. is basically dead. Once Juan Soto signed his mega-deal with the Mets, Guerrero Jr.'s price went beyond that without accounting for anything else. He has his flaws (lack of all-around production, future defensive home, etc.), but Guerrero Jr. is a top hitter in MLB and he is going to have to be paid accordingly whether anybody likes it or not.

Recently, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal posited that an extension worth between $500-600 million is probably what it would take to keep Guerrero Jr. and that is probably right. According to the latest from Jon Heyman, the Blue Jays are currently around $340 million.

However, going on the lower end of that Rosenthal estimate feels like a safer bet. Toronto has the money and they absolutely need a star of the caliber of Guerrero Jr. around, so an 11-year, $510 million extension seems like one that could actually get the ball rolling. Adding a team option year or two on the end is fine if you are into that sort of thing.

Is that a crazy amount of money? Of course it is, but this is the reality we are dealing with here. The Blue Jays are going to have to pay such a premium to keep Guerrero Jr. from testing his market in free agency and they have the deep pockets needed for such a deal as well as money coming off the books after the 2025 season to help take some of the sting out. For Guerrero Jr., such a deal would give him a massive payday at a high AAV and protect against the risk of an injury torching his value or the open market being skeptical of his defensive value especially as he ages.

The only question now is if Toronto has the constitution to push that far. They clearly want to add other pieces to their roster that are not going to come cheap, and that is likely to factor into their decision-making here. That said, they are going to have to push themselves into an uncomfortable position if they are serious about keeping Vladdy.

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