Vladdy is playing more and more like a $500-million man

When the Toronto Blue Jays extended Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a 14-year, $500-million deal back in April, it came with a mix of reactions.

Yes, there were your thoughts of "Thank goodness, future secured." However, there were louder opinions of "This won't age well for the Blue Jays." The latter was given more of a spotlight in the years after his near-2021 MVP campaign. That year, Vladdy led the American League in on-base percentage (.401), slugging (.601), and OPS (1.002), and led the entire majors in home runs (48) and runs (123).

Vladdy would regress in the years that followed. Examples like his 2023 season, where he posted his career-low 1.8 WAR in a full 162-game season and 26 home runs, raised questions about whether he was still the threat he was hyped up to be. As the 2025 campaign rolls on, fans continued to question Vladdy's production due to the lack of home runs. Before the All-Star break, Guerrero Jr. only had 12 home runs and 46 RBIs.

However, what if there's more than just the home runs, which play a strong role in the Blue Jays' pursuit of first place in the American League East? What if he's quietly been playing as a $500-million man and the home runs are cherries on top?

Vladdy is close if not already playing like a $500-million man

To make any contract feel "earned" or worth it, you need to look at the overall production. When it comes to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., his 2025 season has shown he has been worth every penny.

Let's start with his importance to the Blue Jays themselves. Guerrero Jr. leads the team in bWAR at 3.5. His OBP of .398 also charges ahead (minimum of 100 PA). He quickly rose in the home run ranks on the team and is now tied for first with George Springer with 18. Finally, his OPS sits at .879, which is interesting considering the lack of home runs. That OPS total is also sixth in the American League.

His Baseball Savant page shows many of his percentiles in multiple categories sit in the red. He continues to minimize the strikeouts, walking more than he has in recent years, and hitting the ball hard. His maximum exit velocity at 120.4 is the highest it's been in his career. His expected batting average also sits in the 100th percentile at .323. Vladdy's proven he doesn't need just the home runs to show his value for Toronto.

Guerrero Jr. has begun to see more of his quiet success post-All-Star break. In those 20 games since July 18, he's hit half of his home run total before the break and raised his slash line to .378/.457/.683 with an OPS of 1.140. His wRC+ soared to 215, fourth-best in the Majors.

As for his wRC+ for the entire season? Guerrero Jr. is at 146, which is good for eighth and better than the likes of Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, and Freddie Freeman.

Yes, home runs are essential, even though Vladdy's hit at least 30 home runs twice since his 48-homer year in 2021 and is on pace to finish with 33 per Fangraphs in 2025. But considering he's been almost the perfect team-player and helping the Blue Jays get wins and stay in first, then why continue to doubt his worth?

The value for Guerrero Jr. is there, and it's an extension Ross Atkins and company would do in any timeline.