Blue Jays reporter lays out the near-miracle run Toronto needs to stay in the Wild Card conversation

After a runner-up finish in the World Series last season, there were massive expectations for the Toronto Blue Jays throughout the offseason. However, the season hasn't gone as planned. The injury bug has run rampant, and the team suffered poor performances from its key players. Toronto now faces a near-miracle to be at the trade deadline in a position where it's considered a buyer.

Before July 6's loss to the San Francisco Giants, Blue Jays reporter Ben Nicholson-Smith said, "If they go 14-8, they'll be .500 @ deadline." That record is an important target to help a team decide whether to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.

Already starting this pivotal stretch with a loss doesn't bode well for Toronto as the Giants are the weakest opponent on the schedule before the Aug. 3 trade deadline. However, they bounced back to win the other two games of the three-game series. So the Blue Jays start their vital stretch 2-1, but the remaining six series look much more difficult.

Four of the six pre-trade-deadline series are against teams with winning records. Those opponents are the Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Washington Nationals, and St. Louis Cardinals. The other two series will be against the San Diego Padres and the Boston Red Sox.

Obviously, the Blue Jays can win a majority of these games, but with the struggling offense, it feels like the team has a huge mountain to climb. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has played in 88 of 93 games, but is on pace to finish the season with single-digit home runs. The fans voted him into the All-Star Game, but he has opted to skip the event to focus on getting healthy.

Kazuma Okamoto has 20 long balls, but he's the only Blue Jay with a double-digit total. However, for some reason, he got snubbed from the Midsummer Classic. This isn't the only category that the team is struggling with, as they rank among the bottom five in MLB in runs, home runs, and OPS. This doesn't give fans confidence that the team can pull off a desperately needed near-perfect July.

Blue Jays could look to the 2025 Cleveland Guardians as inspiration

Even if they aren't buyers at the deadline, it doesn't mean they have to throw in the towel. They have an opportunity to take a page out of the Cleveland Guardians' playbook. Last season, the Guardians traded away players on expiring contracts who weren't expected to be back with the team, including Shane Bieber and Paul Sewald. They kept their hopes of still contending while also getting value for the future, which resulted in them still winning the AL Central, but the weak division helped.

If the Blue Jays want to follow that path, their expiring contracts are Kevin Gausman, Bieber, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho. All four would be appealing rentals for teams looking to make a postseason push despite their struggles this season.

None of these four is performing well this season, with Gausman having a 4-8 record, a 4.32 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP, despite a 108:29 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's allowed nearly a home run per start with 15, and batters are hitting .243 off of him. His 1.9 WAR is his worst since 2020. Gausman allowed seven runs to the Giants on Jul. 6, though only four were earned, and he walked five.

Bieber has only made three starts this season, recovering from right arm injuries sustained in spring training, but he's been atrocious. He's allowed six home runs over 13 innings, leading to a 9.00 ERA and 9.34 FIP. Springer and Varsho are each hitting below .250 and have OPSes below .710.

It may be time to take an extended look at the Blue Jays' promising prospects, such as Sean Keys and Charles McAdoo, who have limited MLB experience this season. There are also a few other prospects who are having outstanding seasons and could get a look in the big leagues.

The next four weeks are pivotal to determining how aggressive the Blue Jays will be, whether they're buyers or sellers. It'd be quite a letdown for the team and fans if they missed the postseason after coming two outs away from winning the 2025 World Series.

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