Blue Jays Magic Number Update: Under double digits to get to the postseason

Get your magician's hat and start crossing the X's on your calendars, it's time to dive into the magic number for a Postseason birth. The "magic number" (so to speak) is the number of games a team needs to secure a playoff spot in October. You could also figure out the magic number to see how many games it'll take to secure a division title or a playoff seeding.

The formula to determine the magic number is as follows:

162 (Total Number of Games) - Team A's Wins - Team B's losses + 1 (To represent the starting magic number of 163 at the start of a season)

Blue Jays Magic Number Update: Under double digits to get to the postseason

For the Blue Jays, there are two numbers to follow until the final day of the regular season: Their playoff birth and the right to be called the winner of the American League East.

Playoff birth: 9

At the start of the season, the Blue Jays' playoff odds were at 43.6% per Fangraphs. Following a disastrous 2024 season that saw them at the bottom of the division with a 74-88 record, expectations were low for Toronto coming into 2025. After winning eight of ten series by June 30th, the odds jumped to 68.1%. By the end of August, it skyrocketed to 99.6% and now at an even 100% today.

It's an incredible turn of events for a team who were expected to miss the playoffs before the first pitch of the new season. Now, it'll take a mere nine games to make it official. For the magic number, it's taking Toronto's 84 wins and the losses of the team that's battling for the third wild card spot in the standings.

In this case, it's the Texas Rangers at 70. Because the sixth playoff spot is the bare minimum, it's the trailing team that needs to be factored in as if the season ended today.

162 - Toronto's 84 wins - Texas' 70 losses + 1 = 9

While the third wild card spot will continue to be battled for in the coming days, win or lose, the magic number continues to decrease for Toronto just for the days going by. It's a sweet spot for Toronto to be in, yet not the most important magic number to follow.

American League East Title: 14

If a Postseason birth felt out of reach, then the division title might as well have been a fantasy for Blue Jays fans. Not only has Toronto turned their fortune around for the better to play meaningful baseball, they're in the driver's seat for their first division championship since 2015.

The Blue Jays have taken first place in the division since July 3, and despite their lead being trimmed thanks to the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, they remain in control. For this magic number, it's the losses of the second place team that needs to be focused on since they'd be the last "eliminated team" to secure first.

162 - Toronto's 84 wins - New York's 65 losses + 1 = 14

With 16 games remaining in the regular season, it's evident this division race will come down to the wire, or even the final weekend of the regular season. The Yankees sit three games back of the Blue Jays while the Red Sox are three and a half back. Of course, the Blue Jays are fortunate to have the tiebreaker over both teams after winning the season series against each.

The Blue Jays catch a bit of a break to see the Yankees square off against the Red Sox this weekend before New York catch their own break with a favorable final few weeks. Boston meanwhile faces a tough final week of 2025 that sees the Blue Jays and the Detroit Tigers.

Regardless of what happens to the Yankees or the Red Sox, it's the Toronto Blue Jays who hold their own fate in their hands. After winning the series against the Houston Astros this past week, it also helped pad their second-place spot in the American League. At this pace, there's a chance the division title will also come with a first-round bye for the playoffs. Buckle up, it's going to be a race to the finish line.