The most important series remaining on the Blue Jays schedule

September is around the corner, and the division race is neck and neck. Which series will be make or break for the Toronto Blue Jays?
Minnesota Twins v Toronto Blue Jays
Minnesota Twins v Toronto Blue Jays | Mark Blinch/GettyImages

September baseball is around the corner, and the Toronto Blue Jays continue to remain in their crucial playoff races. The Blue Jays sit first in the American League East, looking for their first division title since 2015, and regaining the top spot in the American League (at the time of this writing).

AL East Standings

Wins

Losses

Games Behind

Toronto

78

56

-

Boston

75

60

3.5

New York

73

60

4.5

AL Standings

Wins

Losses

Games Behind

Toronto

78

56

-

Detroit

78

56

0.5

Houston

72

60

5.0

With the Twins now in the rearview mirror, nine series are left before the regular season concludes on September 28. Most of those games are at home, which has brought the Blue Jays good fortune. Out of those remaining nine, which are the most important for Toronto to achieve regular-season glory before their World Series chase begins? Here are four crucial series to circle on your calendar.

The most important series remaining on the Blue Jays schedule

New York Yankees - September 5-7

The Blue Jays took over the division lead when they swept the Yankees in a four game series at the beginning of July at Rogers Centre and they haven't looked back since. But they might need to start at least looking over their shoulders as the Yankees are storming back and by the time this series rolls around, they could once again be neck and neck for the division lead.

Before they match up with each other the Blue Jays have series against the Brewers and the Reds, while the Yankees will play the White Sox and the Astros. If the Yankees are able to make up another game or two before this meeting, this series could effectively decide the AL division winner.

Houston Astros - September 9-11

The Blue Jays' first meeting with the Astros back in April was one to forget, along with the rest of the month. Toronto was swept in their three-game series at Minute Maid Park, a dent in what was a fairly mediocre month for them.

After the sweep, Toronto was 12-13 and third in the American League East and 1.5 games out of the last wild card spot. As for the Astros, the sweep helped them get over .500 and sit in a playoff spot.

Today, the tables have turned on the Astros as the Blue Jays leapfrogged over them in the American League standings, with a semi-comfortable lead of 4.5 games. The Blue Jays are right behind the Tigers for first place, and with their winning ways at home, they definitely want to have home-field advantage for a World Series push.

The Astros will also continue to make their own push for the American League West, as the Seattle Mariners are 1.5 games behind. Should the Blue Jays stay in second and the Astros in third, they'll end up on the same side of the playoff bracket. In that scenario, if the Astros win their Wild Card series, the upcoming series in September may serve as an ALDS preview.

Tampa Bay Rays - September 15-18

Is it weird to label a team that's four games below .500 as an important series? Most likely, but not when you're the Blue Jays against an old division foe that doesn't seem to go away.

Toronto sees the Rays one last time in a four-game series at their temporary home at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, even in another venue, Tampa (or the state of Florida) remains a house of horrors. The Blue Jays visited the Rays in May and lost two of three games. Facing the Rays remains an issue for Toronto, with a 1-5 record against their longtime division rival. Before 2025, the Blue Jays were 10-16 against Tampa in 2023 and 2024.

Whatever dark spell the Rays have over the Blue Jays needs to be exercised during this four-game series. While the odds are slim for Tampa Bay to make the playoffs (0.6% on Fangraphs), they'll still make a strong effort for a desperate final push. As for the Blue Jays, they continue to flirt with a .500 record when on the road. Should they be unable to secure home-field advantage, it's best to use this Tampa Bay series as another chance to get settled away from the dome.

Boston Red Sox - September 23-25

Does this need any further explanation?

Similar to the Blue Jays, the Red Sox found some mid-season magic and are in position to steal the division title from Toronto. Their ten-game winning streak before the All-Star break propelled them to great heights, and they posted a 32-15 record since July 4, second-best in the league.

After Boston swept the Baltimore Orioles this past week, they shrank their division deficit to 3.5 games. The scenario is certainly set for a dramatic finish to the 2025 season, especially with the Yankees also fighting for the division and within five games of the Blue Jays.

However, the Blue Jays have the slight advantage against the Red Sox, winning the season series and posting a 7-3 record against Boston. Should it come down to the wire, the tiebreaker would favor Toronto.

None of that will matter if the Blue Jays can't win their final series against the Red Sox. Whatever happens in September for both Toronto and Boston, all eyes will be on that series, and we'll have a front row seat.

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