Blue Jays’ improved overall play since July has kept them in Wild Card race

The Toronto Blue Jays' are in a tight race with the Cleveland Guardians and Texas Rangers for the final American League Wild Card spot. With the regular season winding down, every game is important for the Blue Jays to get back into the postseason.

While there is still work to do for the Blue Jays, they've already had a significant turnaround in the latter stages of the season. On July 29, they were 50-59, last in the AL East and 5.5 games behind the Guardians for the final wild card spot.

Since then, the Blue Jays have improved to 75-77 to pull within two games back of the Guardians in the wild card race. They also secured the tiebreaker over the Guardians by winning the season series 4-2. In that time, their playoff odds increased 37.3 per cent; from 6.1 per cent to 43.4 per cent.
*All stats prior to Sept. 16

The turnaround has been a team effort, with the Blue Jays improving across the board. Before July 29, the Blue Jays ranked 17th in batting average (.242). Since then, they've had the highest average in MLB (.266). They've had one of the lowest strikeout rates of the season, but that also improved from 19.6 per cent before July 29 to 18.4 per cent since then.

The Blue Jays' pitching has also improved. Before July 29, they had a 4.19 ERA. Since then, they've posted the second-best team ERA in MLB (3.21). The bullpen has been the best in the league during that time, with a 3.05 ERA.

Blue Jays have had everything clicking more often than not since the end of July

The improvements to both the offence and pitching have allowed the Blue Jays to improve their run differential from -63 on July 29 to -32.

The Blue Jays have also been the best defensive team in that timeframe. Since July 29, they've posted the best Fielding Run Value (FRV) in MLB (+22). Not only that, they have doubled their FRV for the season in a month and a half.

The bullpen performance has probably been the biggest factor leading to the Blue Jays' turnaround. Injuries have been the story of the season, and that has continued through August and September. Trey Yesavage was added to the IL on August 5 with a meniscus injury. On August 11, Jameson Taillon was added to the IL with right forearm tendinitis. He returned to the Blue Jays on September 4 but was placed back on the IL the following day with right elbow inflammation.

The injuries to Yesavage and Taillon have left gaps in the Blue Jays' rotation, meaning that the team has been relying on bullpen games to get by. Blue Jays' relievers have pitched the third-most innings since July 29 (180.0). But despite their heavy workload, they've continued to come through for the team, which is one of the biggest reason why the Blue Jays are back in the playoff hunt.

As the regular season nears its end, the Blue Jays need to stay strong to the finish line if they are going to get back into the postseason. They've improved across the board since the end of July but they'll need to maintain those improvements.

While 2026 hasn't quite lived up to 2025 for the Blue Jays, they've done a good job of digging deep late in the season to keep their playoff hopes alive. Now, they need to finish the job.

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