Blue Jays’ second-half surge makes early-season struggles look even more costly

Going into Monday night's action (Sept. 14), MLB reporter Jon Morosi shared on X that only four American League teams have played better than .600 baseball since July 27. All of them are in the AL East.

The Tampa Bay Rays are 28-16. The New York Yankees are 27-17. The Toronto Blue Jays are 27-17. The Boston Red Sox are 28-18. In a year where the American League playoff picture has stayed crowded deep into September, the East has once again turned into a division where even a seven-week heater might not be enough to separate from the pack.

For the Blue Jays, that stat says two things at once. It is proof that they deserve credit for keeping their season alive when it looked like it might slip away. It is also a reminder of how quickly things can change in Major League Baseball, and how costly the games in the early part of the season can become when they are wasted.

This time last year, the Blue Jays were in the driver’s seat while trying to stave off the Yankees for the top spot in the AL East. They accomplished it, and they went all the way to the World Series. Two years ago, they were clearly headed for a below-.500 finish with no serious playoff hopes. This year, they still have a chance, but the path to the playoffs looks much different than it did a year ago.

In all three seasons, there are lessons to be learned. The season is long, but keeping your foot on the pedal is necessary. A hot stretch can save a year, but it cannot completely erase everything that came before it.

The Blue Jays have been excellent for nearly seven weeks, keeping themselves in the race for the third and final AL Wild Card spot. But they also arrived at this point because of the opportunities they let slip away earlier in the year.

On Jul. 26, Toronto was 48-58, ten games under .500 with a .453 winning percentage. If the Blue Jays had simply played .500 baseball to that point instead, they would have been 53-53 through 106 games. Replicate the 27-17 run they have put together since, and they would be 80-70 right now. That is not a division-title pace, but it is a much more comfortable place to be than trying to claw their way into the final Wild Card spot with almost no margin for error.

There were reasons the Blue Jays were ten games under .500 at that point. They had been hit hard by injuries, and their offence was severely underperforming. But perhaps the most frustrating part is that this is not the first season that has felt defined by wasted opportunities in this era of Blue Jays baseball. In fact, it has started to feel like one of the defining traits of the ball club.

Is 2026 another year where the Blue Jays could waste an opportunity?

In 2021, they missed the playoffs by one game despite closing the year like one of the best teams in baseball. They had the fourth-best record in MLB from Jul. 1 onward, going 50-34 over their final 84 games. But that surge arrived just late enough to leave them on the wrong side of the Wild Card race. That was also the final year of only two Wild Card slots.

In 2022, the Blue Jays were a Wild Card team, and for a few innings in Game 2 against the Seattle Mariners, it looked like they were headed for a decisive third game at Rogers Centre. Instead, they watched an 8-1 lead disappear in one of the most devastating playoff collapses in franchise history, losing 10-9 as Seattle completed the sweep.

In 2023, they once again made the playoffs and finished with a strong 89-73 record, but something felt off about that team all year. Then came Game 2 of the Wild Card series against the Minnesota Twins, when José Berríos was pulled after three-plus scoreless innings despite clearly dealing. The decision backfired, Toronto lost 2-0, and the Blue Jays were swept for the second straight postseason.

The 2024 season almost felt like a write-off before it really found rhythm, especially after the Blue Jays failed to land Shohei Ohtani during a winter that briefly convinced much of the fan base that the franchise was about to change forever.

Then 2025 happened. It was the ride of a lifetime, a division-winning season that carried the Blue Jays all the way to the World Series before ending in more heartbreak. It proved what this era of Blue Jays baseball could look like at its best, but it also made the disappointment of falling short even heavier on the hearts of Blue Jays fans.

Now, in 2026, the Blue Jays have a chance to rewrite that narrative again. It will not come as division champions this time. If they are going to get in, they will have to do it by playing the underdog card, something this era of the franchise should be used to by now. This year can still be different, but only if the Blue Jays finish what they spent nearly two months building.

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