AL playoff picture update: Blue Jays’ fate could be decided by Central Division showdown

The Toronto Blue Jays still have their own business to take care of, but their American League playoff fate could be decided just as much by what happens elsewhere this week.

While the Blue Jays reside in the AL East, they will have their eyes on what is happening in the Central Division, where the current division-leading Chicago White Sox are about to open a critical series against the Cleveland Guardians, who currently own the third American League Wild Card spot Toronto is chasing.

Toronto finished Sunday, (Sept. 13) one game behind Cleveland after the Guardians kept pace with a 9-2 win over the Minnesota Twins. Cleveland also moved to within a half-game of the White Sox for the AL Central lead, setting up a three-game series in Cleveland that could have ripple effects across the entire Wild Card race.

That is where things get interesting for the Blue Jays. Toronto is not just chasing Cleveland in the standings. It is also trying to avoid a scenario where Chicago slides out of first place and into the Wild Card mix, because the tiebreaker picture looks a lot different depending on which Central Division team ends up there.

The Blue Jays would probably rather see the White Sox win their series against Cleveland for one obvious reason: Toronto holds the season series tiebreaker over the Guardians. If the Blue Jays and Guardians finish with the same record, Toronto would secure the playoff spot because it won the head-to-head season series. They do not have that same luxury if the White Sox fall out of the division lead and land in a Wild Card spot instead.

That makes the White Sox-Guardians series one of the most important non-Blue Jays matchups of the week from Toronto’s perspective. A strong showing by Chicago would help keep Cleveland within reach. A Cleveland series win, on the other hand, could push the Guardians into the division lead and turn the White Sox into a more complicated Wild Card obstacle.

Of course, all of this could be a moot point if Toronto simply takes care of its own business.

Blue Jays need to take care of business at home against the Detroit Tigers this week

The Blue Jays open a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers on Monday, Sept. 14 at Rogers Centre. Toronto is 2-1 against Detroit so far this season and outscored the Tigers 8-5 in three games at Comerica Park in May, but even that series came with a reminder of how thin the margins have been for this team all year.

That May series opened with the Blue Jays losing 3-2 after Detroit walked it off in the ninth inning. Jeff Hoffman, who is no longer with the club, gave up a two-out RBI double to Spencer Torkelson to end it. Toronto recovered to win the next two games, but that first loss still stands as the kind of missed opportunity that looms much larger in September than it did at the time. As the saying goes, a win in April and May is just as important as a win in September - and right there is the proof.

The Blue Jays are at least coming into the Detroit series with some momentum after taking the rubber match 8-1 win over the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally hit his first regular-season home run at Rogers Centre this year, George Springer and Kazuma Okamoto also went deep, and Dylan Cease struck out nine while allowing one run over five innings.

It was exactly the kind of response Toronto needed after letting the opener against Baltimore slip away. The win got the Blue Jays back to .500 (75-75) and kept them from losing any additional ground in a crowded race, even though Cleveland’s victory over Minnesota prevented them from gaining ground.

The problem for Toronto is that keeping pace is no longer enough. With the Guardians one game ahead, the White Sox only a half-game clear of Cleveland, and other Wild Card hopefuls still hanging around, the Blue Jays need this week to break in their favour.

That starts with beating Detroit. But it may also require scoreboard-watching in Cleveland, where the Blue Jays’ likely have a preferred outcome.

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