Assessing the Blue Jays' leadoff options

Some feel the Toronto Blue Jays haven’t done enough this offseason to be a contender, but that doesn't change the fact the Blue Jays' projected Opening Day lineup is as well-rounded as it's been in years.

And while it's well-rounded, it's still missing one thing: a pure leadoff hitter who posses a good combination of contact and on-base skills, power and speed.

For the past four years, that guy has been George Springer.

Springer was Toronto's main leadoff hitter last year but had his worst season as a Blue Jay (.220/.303/.371). While there are reasons for Jays fans to be optimistic about Springer having a bounce-back year, there are some other intriguing candidates who could replace Springer if he struggles out of the gate.  

Who could the Blue Jays use as a leadoff hitter this year?

The first guy that comes to mind is hitting machine Will Wagner, who is getting some buzz as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate. Wagner posted a .788 OPS in his 24 games with with Blue Jays last year, and FanGraphs is projecting him to have a .351 OBP this season, which is the second-best mark on the team. They also project Wagner to have the second-best walk rate on the team at 10.2%, with a projected BABIP of .320. He could be the spark plug Toronto needs at the top of the lineup.

The second option we think could work is Anthony Santander.

Sure, the assumption was that the Blue Jays would bring Santander in to protect Guerrero, but think of how tough it would be for a starting pitcher to start a game by facing off against Santander and Guerrero (who have combined for 193 home runs the past three seasons).

Having Santander as the leadoff man would also mean that pitchers would have to worry about how you pitch to the bottom of the order in an attempt to avoid having Santander hit with guys on base.

Option three is Andrés Giménez who is projected to have a bounce back season after having an OBP of .298 last season. While he’s never had a great walk rate, he's quick (89th percentile in sprint speed) and can cause trouble on the basepaths (30 bases in 2023 and 2024). The Blue Jays haven’t had a leadoff hitters steal 30 bags since Jose Reyes stole 30 in 2014, and Gimenez getting on base at the top of the lineup could help manager John Schneider with his in-game strategy.

Lastly, there’s a guy who posses all three of these things when healthy: Bo Bichette. Outside of his injury-plagued 2024, Bichette has had an OBP of .330 or better in every one of his MLB seasons.

He’s led the league in hits twice, has hit 20+ home runs three times and even stole 25 bags once. FanGraphs has Bichette hitting .280/.325/.483 with 18 home runs, numbers that would be comparable with other leadoff hitters on contending teams.