3 reasons to be optimistic about George Springer in 2025

While George Springer may not be the most expensive Blue Jay anymore, he could still be the catalyst for a deep playoff run.

George Springer
George Springer | Mark Blinch/GettyImages

Well, folks, here we are again.

We're staring down another season of Blue Jays baseball, and one of the biggest questions on everyone's mind is this: What exactly are we going to get from George Springer?

Are we getting the high-flying, bat-flipping, leadoff-hitting spark plug that was promised when the Jays handed him a contract so large that Rogers executives probably had to sell a couple extra cable packages just to cover it? Or are we getting, well… last year’s version?

What was 2024 like for George Springer?

Because let’s be honest, last season was not great. It was the baseball equivalent of trying to start your car in -30°C and realizing you left the headlights on all night. Just bleh.

Springer hit .220 with an unsightly .674 OPS last season. If you’re paying a guy $150 million, you’d prefer not to think of him as being "league average," but that's exactly the way you'd describe Springer, who turned in the worst statistical season of his career.

Now, before you start flipping tables, let’s add some context. He did stay relatively healthy (145 games played), which is a borderline miracle for a guy whose injury history reads like a medical textbook. So, that’s something! But the production? The power? The extra-base punch? It just wasn’t there.

So what now? He’s got two years left on his deal, and let’s face it, Toronto’s in win-now mode. They’re not paying him to be a good veteran presence and lead clubhouse karaoke nights. They need actual, on-field results.

The good news? There’s reason for optimism.

First, Springer is still George Springer. This is a guy who, not that long ago, was an All-Star and a guy pitchers genuinely feared. He didn’t suddenly forget how to hit a baseball.

Last year's underlying numbers suggest he was a little unlucky and was a hitter transitioning from being a guy that can do everything to someone adjusting to being more of a contact hitter. So maybe last season was just a weird statistical blip on the path to becoming a new version of himself at the plate.

Second, the shift to right field has actually worked. The Jays made the right call getting him out of center where his body was constantly betraying him like an old mattress with a broken spring. He’s become a solid defensive right fielder, and that should help keep him in the lineup. That durability should help him work through his adjustments at the plate as well by being able to provide consistency in refining his approach.

And that brings us to the "Part B" of this point: It's hard to adjust your approach without live at-bats in favorable situations. With that mind, it's time to also move Springer down in the lineup regardless of if they sign Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman.

Springer's average last year was a bit better in the middle of the lineup (.239) compared to when he led off (.214) and a move down the lineup means that he might face off against more righties. While Springer's career splits are pretty balanced (.263 hitter against righties vs. .261 against lefties), he only hit .187 against southpaws last year.

Toronto has multiple leadoff options who can take Springer's place, and we don't mind the idea of pitchers getting to the sixth spot in the lineup and staring at Springer after Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Anthony Santander and others have already generated a run (or five).

Finally, it seems like Springer has gotten away from crowding the plate and keeping his hands low.

When you look at Springer's hit by pitch numbers, they were almost double during his best years in Houston (2016 & 2017). That, coupled with his heat maps showing that his hot zones have gotten more and more isolated to middle-in make it seem like he's not keeping his hands where they need to be.

If he continues with lower hands (which speeds up the bat) and gets up on the plate like he used to, we think we'll see stats like what FanGraphs is predicating for his 2025 (.242/.318/.404, 20 HR, 80 RBI).

So what’s a realistic expectation? He's not turning back the clock to 2019, but there should be a way for him to land somewhere between his 2022 All-Star campaign and his solid 2023 campaign. A season where he hits 20-25 home runs, has an OPS in the high .700s, and plays solid defense in right.

That’s not MVP stuff, but it’s useful to this version of the Blue Jays.

If he struggles again, however, then it's time to start asking the tough questions. Then we start wondering if those last two years of his contract are just going to be a very expensive farewell tour.

But for now? Let’s just hope last year was a bad dream and, come April, Springer will be launching baseballs into the seats like it’s 2017 again.

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