4 projected free-agent contracts that could be risky investments for the Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have had their fair share of hits and misses in free agency over the last few seasons. Dylan Cease and Anthony Santander represent opposite sides of that statement. Cease has been worth every penny. Santander has played less than 60 games over two years.

Spotrac recently released their projected Annual Average Values for the upcoming free agent class. From the list, there are several players the Blue Jays should definitely be in on given their current needs, Tarik Skubal and Adrian Morejon for example. However, there are also four players the Blue Jays should avoid at these price tags.

The Blue Jays should avoid these players at these projected price tags

Robbie Ray - $23.8M AAV

It was a tale of two seasons for Ray. After posting a 3.08 ERA in 122.2 innings with the Giants, he was traded to the Padres where it ballooned to 5.02 in 43 innings and his FIP was higher with both teams meaning he was getting lucky with the numbers he did post.

Various factors such as age and injury have contributed to Ray's decline over the last few seasons. His fastball velocity now sits at 93 mph compared to 94.8 mph during his previous tenure in Toronto. His strikeout rate has also fallen precipitously as it was down to 19.9% in 2026 compared to 32.1% in 2021.

While it would be a homecoming to the place that he won a Cy Young award, the 35-year-old Ray may have already had his best years. Over $20 million annually would be a steep price, even for the Blue Jays.

Luis Arraez - $18M AAV

Arraez's defining trait is his ability to hit. He will not wow people with his power (a career .098 ISO), but he has an elite knack for putting the bat to ball. However, it is his only defining trait and not worthwhile for the Blue Jays to pay him at that price tag.

The 29-year-old infielder is a career .316 hitter, who does not strike out much, if at all, as evidenced by his 5.8% career strikeout rate. He is also coming off the best defensive year of his career with 12 OAA at second base.

Although Arraez fits the mold of the Blue Jays' hitting philosophies, they need more power and he does not offer that. It also remains to be seen if the defensive gains he made in 2026 will stick long term. To pay that much money, the Blue Jays would be better off targeting Jazz Chisholm or Brandon Lowe instead.

Seiya Suzuki - $27.5M AAV

Suzuki is one of the top outfielders available in the market. Not only is he coming off one of his best offensive seasons, but the best defensive season of his career as well. His 4.6 fWAR is a career best and he is lined up to get paid well in free agency.

While he is someone that fits what the Blue Jays need, there are some signs for concern. Though his bat speed remained relatively the same, the contact quality changed. He had the second-lowest barrel rate of his career (10.7%), his hard-hit rate was at a career-low (38.9%), and he registered the second-lowest max exit velocity in a season. Like Arraez, it remains to be seen if his defensive gains also stick long term.

A $27.5 million AAV is a bit rich for the 32 year old. Ultimately, it depends if the Blue Jays believe Suzuki can continue to put up seasons of 4.0 fWAR. If they believe he can, then he is worth the money. If not, then they may have to look elsewhere, perhaps fellow countryman Teruaki Sato.

Jason Adam - $8.7M AAV

Signing relievers to multi-year deals can always be risky business given how volatile they can be. The Blue Jays have become more willing in recent years to hand out multi-year deals to relievers (Jeff Hoffman and Tyler Rogers). Adam, however, isn't a player who screams "multi-year deal."

Despite posting a 2.62 ERA in 34.1 innings this past season, his underlying stats paint a different picture. His 4.85 FIP and 11.6 HR/FB rate indicates that Adam was really lucky to have a 2.62 ERA.

He has saw his strikeout rate decline every season since 2023 and it dropped to a career-worst 15.5% in 2026. Not only did he generate less swing and miss, his fastball sat a career-low 93.4 mph.

The Blue Jays do need another reliever in case they opt to move Spencer Miles into the rotation, but Adam should not be a target for them, even on a one year deal.

Honorable Mentions (w/ AAV):

Michael King ($29.9M)
Freddy Peralta ($28.7M)
Shota Imanaga ($22.9M)
Foster Griffin ($20M)
Kris Bubic ($17.4M)
Gregory Soto ($13.8M)

There are many options the Blue Jays will have to comb through this offseason. Some of these players should be viewed as last resort if they cannot land their primary targets for the right price.

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