Blue Jays should jump at projected prices for Tarik Skubal and these 3 free agents

The Collective Bargaining Agreement is expiring soon and there's a potential lockout looming with proposals of a salary cap. The Toronto Blue Jays and the other 29 MLB teams will have to navigate that whenever it happens, but in the meantime, the Blue Jays should try to maintain their role as big spenders.

Spotrac recently released Annual Average Value projections for the upcoming free agent class. Given the Blue Jays current needs there are four projected contracts they should be all over, before the new rules come into play.

The Blue Jays should absolutely jump on these players in free agency at their projected prices

Tarik Skubal - $39.5 million AAV

Skubal is the top free agent available this offseason, period. Insiders believe Skubal could get over $44 million AAV based on a couple of motivators. That would surpass Yoshinobu Yamamoto's $325 million guarantee with the Dodgers and Max Scherzer's former $43.3 million AAV with the Mets that he signed in 2021.

Given Skubal's track record and postseason experience, it is a shock to see the projection of less than $40 million AAV. Skubal has posted at least 5.2 fWAR in the last three seasons and there is no reason for the Blue Jays to pass on the opportunity to bring him into the fold at that price.

There would be concerns of age and durability as he would be 30 entering 2027 and he had an elbow injury this past year. But the Blue Jays would be paying for the near term production. With the uncertainty surrounding the Dodgers and their ownership, and the very limited suitors who could realistically afford to pay him, the door is wide open for the Blue Jays to capitalize.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. - $17.4M AAV

Chisholm is one of the top younger bats available on the market. He could be an intriguing candidate for a long-term deal or he can do a short term deal with options to test the market again in the next year or two. His projected AAV ranks fourth among available second baseman and given his age and skillset, the Blue Jays would be getting the most bang for their buck with Chisholm.

Coming off a down season in which Chisholm slashed .231/.312/.399 with a 98 wRC+, he still had a solid season. Despite the below average offense, he managed to have his best season as a defender.

His 13 OAA at second base helped him accrue a 3.5 fWAR, which is down from his 4.3 mark in 2025 but still impressive nonetheless. His above average sprint speed makes him a threat on the bases as well.

With reports (subscription required) of Chisholm unlikely to receive a qualifying offer, the Blue Jays would not have to surrender a draft pick to a division rival in order to sign him.

Randy Arozarena - $20.5M AAV

Arozarena is no stranger to the AL East as he spent over four-and-a-half seasons with the Rays. The 31-year-old is one of the top bats available in free agency and chose the best time to have a career season. Given his age, he should be able to command at least four years in his next contract.

In 2026, Arozarena slashed .281/381/.484 with 26 home runs, 79 RBI, 26 stolen bases, and a career-high 113 runs scored which was second in the Majors. His success could be attributed to sacrificing bat speed to cut down on swing and miss. He has always been a negative defender in left field so an eventual move to DH might be needed.

For the Blue Jays, signing Arozarena at just over $20 million AAV is definitely worth it. He has shown he can hit for average and power while also being a threat on the bases, something the Blue Jays need more of as they ranked 27th in the Majors last season.

Adrian Morejon - $8.7M AAV

Morejon is the youngest arm available in free agency. There is already a precedent set with relievers signing with the intention of becoming a starter and Morejon could be the next one. Given his age (27), he should be able to command at least four years from any team that pursues him.

He's coming off back-to-back seasons with an ERA of less than 2.85. He posted a career-low 2.08 ERA in 75 games in 2025 and a 2.83 mark in 2026. While his ERA went up slightly over the last year, he also generated a lot more strikeouts this past season. He managed a career-high 30.4% strikeout rate, up from 24.5%. He improved on getting swing and miss on his pitches as his 30.4% whiff ranked in the 97th percentile.

If he were to stick as a reliever, paying him less than $9 million to be a high-leverage/setup reliever is playing with house money, especially given what the Blue Jays paid for Tyler Rogers last season (three-year, $37 million).

Honorable Mentions (w/ AAV):

Sonny Gray ($19.4M)
Jake Bauers ($14.5M)
Trent Grisham ($13.7M)
Luis Robert Jr. ($12.2M)
AJ Puk ($1.3M)
Paul Sewald ($1.2M)

It remains to be seen how the Blue Jays will address their issues over the offseason. If they can land even one of these free agents at these projected AAVs, it would be a considered a pretty strong offseason.

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