3 free agent regression candidates the Blue Jays should avoid

As the Toronto Blue Jays enter the offseason looking to bolster their roster for a strong 2025 campaign, the front office must tread carefully in free agency. While high-profile names can be tempting, some players come with the risk of regression — either due to age, recent performance declines, or underlying metrics suggesting their best days are behind them.

While the Blue Jays have been able to avoid the competitive balance tax (CBT), the payroll flexiblity for next year may not be as flexible as years prior. On Oct. 2, club president and CEO Mark Shapiro indicated he doesn’t expect next year’s payroll to “grow or decrease significantly.” With that in mind, a conservative estimate places the budget around the $230 million to $235 million range.

3 free agent regression candidates the Blue Jays should avoid

The Jays front office will have to be very deliberate in all of their free agency signings and steer clear of any players who have glaring red flags. Here's a breakdown of three potential free agents whose recent trends make them risky targets for the Jays as they aim to build a sustainable contender.

OF Anthony Santander

Outside of Juan Soto, Anthony Santander is one of the most appealing outfielders on the free agent market. The switch hitter had his best season yet in 2024, posting career highs in home runs (44), RBI (102), SLG% (.506) and OPS+ (134).

So what's the issue? The Blue Jays are in clear need of a power-hitting outfielder, especially with Daulton Varsho not looking to be ready by Opening Day. However, the issue with Santander is that when he's not hitting home runs, he's not doing much else. The Venezuelan native does not grade out well defensively, as he acquired -7 DRS and -2 OAA last season. That fit doesn't particularly match with the team's philosophy on improving defense.

Santander also has a risky hitting profile for the future, as he had a chase rate of 35.1% last year, making him a very free swinger, whether he gets a good pitch to hit or not. Match that up with his career .308 OBP, and there's reason to believe he'll struggle as he gets older.

Ben Clemons from FanGraphs has Santander receiving a five-year, $100M contract, which is a hefty price to pay for any team but even more so for the Jays, who are trying to navigate their tight budget. Santander also has a qualifying offer attached to him, raising his cost even further. There are several other power-hitting outfielders remaining on the market, such as Tyler O'Neill or Teoscar Hernandez, who grade out as safer and more affordable selections than Santander.

RHP Kirby Yates

Yates is a name that the Blue Jays are familiar with, as he was signed back in 2021 to help shore up the bullpen. Unfortunately, in spring training that year, he was diagnosed with a flexor strain, and it was later announced that he would undergo Tommy John surgery, ending his season before it could even start.

Fast forward a few years, and Yates has experienced some success with different teams, but most especially the Texas Rangers last season. The right-hander had an outstanding year, posting a 1.17 ERA, 33 saves and a 12.41 K/9 strikeout rate. He also kept his WHIP at a remarkable 0.83, while staying completely healthy.

There's no doubt that Yates would be a good addition to the current Blue Jays bullpen, but it's worth remembering that there is no more volatile position than a relief pitcher in baseball. It can go from one year being the best in all of MLB, to the next being below replacement level. Just take a look at the Jays' very own relief pitchers Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson, who have both been rumored to be non-tendered this offseason, just one year removed from being the 1-2 punch in the Jays bullpen.

The risk around Yates is raised even higher, considering his extensive injury history throughout his career while going into his age 38 season. He'll certainly be looking to cash in big on his massive bounce-back season. However, it feels in the Jays' best interest to look for multiple relievers to stock up on rather than invest heavily into a singular one.

2B Ha-Seong Kim

Ha-Seong Kim likely would have been a safer bet, if not for his shoulder injury, which will delay him from the beginning of the 2025 season. He put together a decent campaign in 2024, slashing .233/.330/.370 for an OPS+ of 96. His real value lies in his defense and baserunning, where he ranks out as one of the better players in the game.

While Kim has solid defensive versatility and above-average speed (60-for-74 in steals), his offensive ceiling is limited by his lack of power, as his ISO has ranged from .132 to .138 over the past three seasons. His low strikeout rate (16.4%) and walk rate (12.1%) show he’s a disciplined hitter, but his gap power might not be enough to sustain his value over the long term, particularly if his shoulder injury affects his return to form.

Kim’s hitting profile, combined with his injury history, make him a risky investment, especially for a multi-year contract. Teams signing him to long-term deals could see diminished production if his rehab process doesn’t go smoothly. The uncertainty of his shoulder rehab complicates any predictions for his 2025 season, and his injury history could affect both his power and defensive contributions. His potential for regression is considerable, making him a less desirable option for the Jays, who desperately need stability.

Similar to Santander, FanGraphs has Kim's potential contract projected at five years, $100M. While he could be worth that investment, the lack of power and recent health risks make it more likely that the Jays should look elsewhere if they're hoping to stock up on their infield options.