Blue Jays free agent targets: Anthony Santander vs Teoscar Hernández

Entering this offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays have plenty of holes to fill, and the lack of an impact bat in the outfield might be the most glaring one. With Daulton Varsho manning center as a defense-first player, and an aging George Springer in right, there's a clear need for someone who can reliably produce at the plate.

While Jays fans can certainly dream of signing Juan Soto, there are still other more reasonable options on the market, with Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández standing out as two of the best. Both are coming off excellent seasons offensively and should be in line for a big payday, but who would be a better target for the Blue Jays, what do they bring to the table, and in what areas might they be lacking?

Blue Jays free agent targets: Anthony Santander vs Teoscar Hernández

Starting with Santander, the 30-year-old Venezuelan is hitting free agency for the first time, after having spent his whole career in Baltimore since debuting in 2017. It's easy to understand why he would be an appealing free agent.

He's coming off a season where he smacked a career-high 44 home runs, which ranked third in baseball, behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. His .814 OPS and 134 OPS+ were also career highs and marked the culmination of a three-year stretch where he established himself as one of baseball's best switch-hitters, posting a 125 OPS+ over that span.

In all three of those seasons, he posted at least a .720 OPS against both left- and right-handed pitchers, a rarity among switch-hitters. This year in particular, he was an integral piece of an Orioles lineup that led the American League in OPS+, driving in a team-leading 102 runs.

On the surface, Santander looks like exactly what the Blue Jays are missing: a power bat who can consistently produce from both sides of the plate. However, the numbers may not be as good as they seem.

While the 44 home runs are certainly impressive, his other numbers weren't quite as high as you'd hope. His power surge did produce a career-high .506 slugging, but his .814 OPS was well below what you would expect from someone with so many homers.

Since 1995, there have been 213 instances of a player hitting at least 40 home runs, and out of all those seasons, Santander's 2024 campaign ranked 209th in terms of OPS. His statcast metrics are also just good but not great, which isn't something you want to see in a hitter you could be committing big money to.

Defensively he also leaves much to be desired. In right field, he ranked in the 28th percentile for outs above average this season, and he doesn't possess much speed or arm strength to make up for any deficiencies. If he came to Toronto it's likely he'd be put in left field, where he's only played 90 games throughout his career and has struggled immensely compared to how he fares in right. While having Daulton Varsho patrolling center could mask some of his flaws, Santander's defense would remain a concern.

Former Blue Jay Teoscar Hernández would be a welcome fit

Moving onto Hernández, it isn't difficult imagining him in a Blue Jays uniform. The 32-year-old right-handed hitter spent over five seasons in Toronto from 2017 to 2022 where he was one of the team's most popular players.

After putting up decent numbers in 2018 and 2019, Hernández broke out during the COVID-shortened 2020 season and was one of the American League's best hitters through 2022. During that stretch, he posted a 133 OPS+ with 73 home runs and 71 doubles over 324 games and won two Silver Sluggers in the outfield.

After being traded following the 2022 season, Hernández struggled with the Mariners in 2023, posting a 108 OPS+, but is coming off a massive bounce back this year with the Dodgers. He slashed .272/.339/.501 with a career-high 33 home runs for a 137 OPS+, which ranked ninth in the National League. He continued that play through much of the postseason, putting up a 1.067 OPS in the NLDS, and .931 in LA's World Series victory.

He produced in the postseason with the Jays as well, hitting two home runs in his final game with the team in their 2022 Wild Card loss to the Mariners. While his raw numbers in 2024 may seem very similar to Santander's, his advanced metrics do a much better job of backing them up. He ranked in the 91st percentile for expected slugging, the 94th for barrel rate, and 90th for batting run value.

While Hernández has, for the most part, excelled offensively, much like Santander, his defense is lacking. He routinely struggled in the field with Toronto, and despite taking a step forward and playing league-average defense in 2023, this past year was a disaster.

After spending the majority of his career in right, the Dodgers moved him to left field, where Hernández recorded -9 outs above average, which ranked 260th out of 274 qualified fielders. While it's reasonable to assume that his first year in a new position wouldn't be an easy transition, Hernández was a borderline liability in left field. Throughout his time with the Blue Jays, he made notable improvements as a defender, so it's reasonable to expect that could happen again, but his play in 2024 wasn't ideal.

The free agent market has become rather unpredictable over the past couple of offseasons, but it seems safe to assume that both Santander and Hernández will be commanding three- to four-year deals somewhere in the 20 to 25 million dollar per year range, which should be well within the Blue Jays' budget.

As for how they stack up as players, it's fairly simple. Santander provides solid offense from both sides of the plate, but Hernández has both a stronger track record and better advanced metrics to suggest that he could continue hitting at a high level.

While Santander may have a leg up defensively, it's far from a certainty that he could successfully transition to left field, and although it would be difficult for him to be as bad as Hernández was in 2024, it's unlikely he'd be much better.

It's also important to take into account that Hernández has a history with the Blue Jays and is still friends with many of the players, namely Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Of course there are other factors that the front office will take into consideration if they are interested in either of these players, but should they need to choose between to two, it's an easy choice: Teoscar Hernández is a perfect fit.