Blue Jays insider advises against Jays signing top power-hitting free agent

With the 2024 season officially wrapped up for the Toronto Blue Jays, the focus now shifts to the offseason. Given how much this team underperformed, change is inevitable, and one of the easiest avenues for change is in free agency. One free agent who's been a popular name among Jays fans is Orioles right fielder Anthony Santander, who's coming off a career year, hitting 44 home runs, the third most in MLB. While on paper he may seem like a great fit for a Blue Jays squad in desperate need of some pop, insider Ben Nicholson-Smith doesn't seem to agree.

On a recent episode of the At The Letters podcast, Nicholson-Smith warned against going all in on the soon-to-be 30-year-old switch hitter, having this to say about him: "Let's be honest, this was his career season. He's not a 40-home run bat. Kudos to him for timing it perfectly, but I would be wary about paying someone who's best season will be behind him". So how true is this assessment of Santander, and should the Blue Jays really avoid him once he hits the open market?

Blue Jays insider warns against power-hitting free agent

The first thing to note is that Santander is a good hitter, and has been for a few years now. Over the last three seasons, he's slashed .244/.317/.478 with 105 home runs for a 125 OPS+ while playing over 150 games each year. He's also been a bit of a Jays killer, posting a .845 OPS in 330 career plate appearances against them. Add in that he's a switch-hitter with power from both sides of the plate, and it's easy to see why people may want him in Toronto.

However, while he is without question a good hitter, that's about as far as it goes. Take his stats from 2024 for example. His 44 home runs will jump off the page right away and scream "elite hitter", but that isn't necessarily the case. In the past 30 years (1995-2024), there have been 213 instances of a player hitting 40 or more home runs in a season. In terms of OPS, Santander's 2024 ranks 209th among these players. Further, while his home run total boomed, his OBP fell to just .308, which ranked 103rd out of 130 qualified hitters in the Majors. The reality is that while the power numbers were there, his overall offensive output wasn't as impressive as it may seem at first glance.

It goes beyond just the baseline stats too. Santander's advanced metrics paint a picture of a hitter bound to regress in 2025. Outside of his expected slugging and barrel rate, which rank in the 74th and 79th percentile, his statcast metrics are generally middling to bad, with his expected batting average sitting in the 22nd percentile looking especially concerning. It's certainly possible, maybe even likely, that he continues to be a 30-plus home run hitter in the future, but he profiles more as someone who peaked at the right now rather than one of the top power bats in the league.

It's also worth mentioning that Santander is a well below-average fielder. He ranked in the 29th percentile for Outs Above Average in 2024, which explains why he posted just 2.9 WAR per Baseball Reference despite his offensive output.

As he enters his 30s it's unlikely that he make some big leap defensively, which only lowers his floor should he regress offensively. If he becomes available at a reasonable price, then the Blue Jays could absolutely find a use for his bat, but it appears as though BNS may be right in his assessment of Santander as a player whose best season is behind him.