Blue Jays: 5 spring training conversations worth more time

Spring training is in full swing as the Blue Jays play their first exhibition game today against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Through the early days of camp, all of the typical things going on this spring for the Toronto Blue Jays. There position battles, new faces, rookies looking to break camp, and veterans that we hope produce at the level we have grown accustomed too.

With all the things going on around camp as games get going, we look to start the conversation on five things that still may not be getting enough discussion as March opens.

#5  –  Ryan Goins vs. Devon Travis

Ryan Goins filled in admirably for Devon Travis as he recovered from injury last season. Goins filled in so well that he finally started gaining a following by Jays fans as his plus glove finally had a hitting complement.

Goins season splits were quite remarkable. In nearly the same amount of at-bats in each half he was able to double the amount of walks he had. In the first half he triple-slashed a harsh .226 / .273 / .321 but boosted that to a respectable .274 / .361 / .387 in the latter half of the season.

This was mostly attributed to an improved approach at the plate. Goins began his swing with his bat rested on his shoulder and would raise it as the pitcher went into their motion. This relaxed timing mechanism allowed Goins to see better pitches. He was still striking out, but he was walking at a much greater frequency. The fact that he was seeing better pitches translated into more hits also.

Devon Travis remains headed for the Disabled List as the season starts. The Jays are currently unsure when Travis will return, though mid-May is being used as an initial timeline. With the amount of thump in the everyday lineup, it can be assumed they will not rush Travis back.

The Blue Jays have an even more fearsome lineup with Travis healthy. His bat had him in Rookie of the Year talks early in the 2015 season. Travis would go on to play in 62 games and amass a 2.4 WAR in that time, coming up big when he was needed and appearing to be all-too-comfortable playing in the Majors. He would close the season with a .304 batting average, eight home runs, 38 runs scored, and 31 RBI. Pretty amazing for a rookie that played hurt near the end of their season.

Here is the wrinkle. What if Goins gets off to a smoking hot start and has a month similar to his August 2015 performance? Last August he batted .314 with 14 runs scored, 9 RBI, 3 doubles, and 2 homers. Does this make people question who is on second? Time will tell.

Next: #4: Staying on the left side: Who's on first?

#4  –  The competition at first base

After a career year, Chris Colabello established himself as an offensive force for the Blue Jays.  The easy-swinging first baseman found himself at the center of the Jays attack in the 2015 playoffs after starting the season in the minors.

Colabello started the season red hot in Buffalo and continued to swing it the entire season after he was promoted to the Blue Jays. He would finish the season with a stellar .321 batting average while scoring 55 runs, collecting 54 RBI, 19 doubles, and 15 homers. This was all done over 101 games and at multiple positions.

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Justin Smoak, his main competition, is your typical power first baseman that has a solid glove and clobbers the ball.  Him being a switch hitter provides some extra versatility, as well.

Smoak would mash 18 homers for the Jays and drive in 59 RBI last season. The former top prospect is a plus defender and that is one reason he got some ample playing time in 2015. While his power remains very impressive, he was held to a .226 batting average and an rough .299 on-base percentage.  What stands out for Smoak is the slugging percentage that reached a nice .470.

This often means that Smoak is swinging for the fences every time he steps into the plate. This all-or-nothing attitude typically leads to a high strikeout rate, and did again for Smoak. He collected 86 strikeouts in 132 games.

So who takes the majority of the at-bats in this platoon this season?  Colabello gives you a solid bat with adequate power and defense. Smoak gives you raw power and a good glove but a low batting average.

Regardless of who wins out at the end, either player should be good for double digit homers and 50 RBIs. One edge that Colabello has in this equation is that he may come with a better on-base tool than Smoak while still offering pop. Colabello also ran away with the job near the end of the season and in the playoffs. Does he pick up where he left off or does Smoak’s swing hard in case you hit it philosophy win out?

Next: #3: Marco....POLO!

#3  –  Who is Marco Estrada (Season 2, Episode 1)

What has Marco Estrada been up to?  After securing a a 2 year $26 million dollar deal, he quickly vanished from the Blue Jays cycle.  The Estrada signing could look very team friendly, however, if he continues to perform like he did last season.

Remember this one for a second: At this time last year, most were afraid to put Estrada into the starting rotation and had him slated for the bullpen. Daniel Norris was the 5th starter for the Blue Jays entering last season, whereas Estrada did not get his first start until May 5th.

So what does Estrada do for an encore this season, and was that success sustainable?  Last year was an incredible year for Estrada where he had career highs in wins, ERA, and innings pitched. The season even landed him in the Cy Young award voting at number 10 as opposing batters only hit .203 against him. That was the lowest opposing batting average against in the American League. Estrada was also one of the teams best starters in the postseason and came up huge in his 3 starts. He held hitters to a 2.44 ERA in the playoffs.

Most projection systems have Estrada projected for a huge slide. FanGraphs Steamer projections have Estrada slated for a 10-10 record over 165 innings. His ERA is projected to be a 4.44 which is an outrageous jump from the 3.13 ERA he posted in 2015.

The question going forward is did Estrada finally really put everything together or did he just have a good year buoyed by good luck? Did he benefit from having a plus defense behind him, and can he again? No matter how you slice it, Toronto has Estrada for the next 2 seasons and any production close to what he put up in 2015 will be welcomed.

Next: #2: Looking at the top. Hail the King, baby

#1  –  Whose turn is it to break out?

With all the talent that has come into the team in the past few seasons, who becomes this year’s breakout candidate?  Last seasons breakout pitcher had to be Marco Estrada. He clocked in for the season as a 6th starter to be used in the bullpen and stormed his way to be one of our best pitchers.

In the field, the nod would have to go to Kevin Pillar.  He was meant to be the team’s 4th outfielder and was thrust into the starting role in left after Michael Saunders went down.  Pillar went on to have a phenominal season and always seemed to be clutch.  Whether it was a big catch or a hit he seemed to always find a way to contribute.  

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Looking at this season the roster is mostly the same, but as is always the case, there is a breakout player in there somewhere. Potential candidates may begin with Michael Saunders.

Saunders has had trouble staying on the field due to injuries but has always had the talent to be a good hitter. After getting hurt last season and only making his way into 9 games for the Jays he probably feels he has something to prove. In 2014 he played in 78 games for the Mariners and batted a solid .273 with 8 homers, 38 runs scored, and 34 RBI. He has a contact swing that should show some power in the Rogers Centre’s gaps.

Next: The other 5 storylines we'll be watching for this spring

Another option may be Aaron Sanchez. Last season, Sanchez was just starting to put things together as a starter when an injury derailed his progress. The Jays opted to put him into the bullpen and traded for David Price soon after Sanchez returned. He pitched in 92.1 innings while holding teams to a 3.22 ERA, finding his value in the late innings to set up for Roberto Osuna. This offseason Sanchez has been working out with his friend Marcus Stroman and has bulked up, adding nearly 25 pounds and setting his sights on the 5th spot in the Jays rotation. Is this the year we see the Stro-Chez show take off?

Those are a few guys that could be the boom the Jays need, but who do you think could be a breakout candidate? Toronto have all sorts of reclamation projects like Domonic Brown and Junior Lake that could regain the talents they showed off in years past. Brown was an All-Star just a few years ago (remember?). This season is sure to have plenty of unsung heroes, and as 2015 showed, a playoff team will need them.