Why Kazuma Okamoto may have some unfair expectations on his shoulders this spring

The Toronto Blue Jays conducted all of their offseason activity with a defined purpose. After nearly winning the World Series, Toronto aggressively added one of the best pitchers and supplemented the roster with a handful of solid additions.

One of those additions on the offensive side is Japanese star Kazuma Okamoto. The signing nearly coincided with the free agency sweepstakes of Bo Bichette, who is now wearing a New York Mets uniform playing third base. The Blue Jays nabbed Okamoto in a move that surprised outside observers.

Why Kazuma Okamoto may have some unfair expectations on his shoulders this spring

It has raised legitimate questions about whether Okamoto represents an upgrade or downgrade over Bichette. Bichette is a natural-born hitter who experienced a wild 2025 season in which he was injured in September before making it back for the World Series. All told, it was a .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs and 94 RBIs in 139 games last season.

Simpy put, Okamoto needs to replace a solid amount of Bichette's offense. If Okamoto can replace 60-70% of that offense, then the Blue Jays are in good shape with Andrés Giménez providing excellent defense at shortstop and the occasional offensive hot streak.

Signing Okamoto to a four-year, $60 million contract represents incredible value for the Blue Jays this season and beyond. Okamoto needs to deliver on that bargain value, especially when the franchise is running record payrolls after just making the World Series. If the Blue Jays could realize 30+ home run power from someone "only" making $15 million per season, then it allows the franchise to act aggressively in other areas.

The good news is that the 29-year-old is projected to have a very good season, and maybe even surpass Bichette in a few areas. According to FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, Okamoto is forecast to post a 112 wRC+ next season. Crucially, they peg him at 22 home runs next season, which is slightly higher than Bichette's Steamer projection of 18 home runs for the Mets.

Blue Jays fans understand how difficult the transition to playing in MLB can be. Okamoto will need to maintain his low strikeout rate when he faces stout MLB pitching. The pitchers will make adjustments after hurlers see him a handful of times. After posting a matching 11.3% strikeout and walk rate last season, Steamer sees him striking out at a 17% clip this season.

The problem is that if Okamoto doesn't pan out, then the expectations increase for the rest of the roster. Addison Barger would need to translate that powerful swing into reliable offensive production. Ernie Clement will need to prove that his postseason hit splurge was more than just a mirage. The margin of error becomes a lot thinner in that hypothetical environment.

Make no mistake, Okamoto is a key player for the 2026 Blue Jays. The Blue Jays envisioned Okamoto with a supporting cast of Kyle Tucker and maybe someone else. Instead, the Blue Jays will have to operate in a world through which Okamoto is a huge offensive cog.

The good news is that the native of Japan seems to have a great personality that fans will enjoy watching over the next four seasons.