Why it makes sense for these Blue Jays to hit higher in the order this season

The Toronto Blue Jays have one of the deepest and most valuable groups of position players that the sport has to offer and face an interesting situation heading into the 2026 season. With the departure of franchise cornerstone Bo Bichette during the offseason, there is curiosity as to how the reigning AL champions will form their batting order as they try to contend once again.

The Blue Jays were one of baseball's best at producing offense in 2025, finishing the season tied for fourth in wRC+ (112), fourth in runs scored (798), third in wOBA (.330) and third in OPS (.761).

The top two run producers were George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. whose wRC+ marks of 166 and 137 ranked third and 13th respectively in the American League. Springer accumulated most of his plate appearances batting leadoff, and Guerrero Jr. batting third. They have also continued to hit in these spots in Spring Training when they are in the lineup.

By the end of the season the second spot in the order was typically filled by either Nathan Lukes or Davis Schneider in a platoon role, and the cleanup spot belonged to Bichette. Bichette is now gone and a platoon might not be the most effective way to get production out of such an important spot in the lineup. Luckily, the Blue Jays have some players who should seamlessly fit into these slots.

The potential keys to the order might be Daulton Varsho and Addison Barger

Big contributions to the 2025 offense came from Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho who will be looked at once again to pump some juice into the Blue Jays lineup. 

Barger was playing his best baseball from May to July, posting a .277/.332/.554 slash line with a 141 wRC+ from May 15 to July 15. While he did slump after that, posting a wRC+ of 87 from July 15 to September 30, there is reason to believe that he can do big things in 2026.

Despite a considerable slump in the later part of the season, Barger still finished the 2025 season with a barrel rate in the 70th percentile, average exit velocity in the 86th percentile, and hard hit rate in the 91st percentile. His biggest weakness was his tendency to chase pitches, as his chase rate ranked in the 30th percentile to end the season. In the postseason, something changed.

During the 2025 postseason, Barger seemed like a completely different hitter at times. His walk rate jumped up nearly five percentage points and his strikeout rate dropped over six percentage points. He was laying off pitches that he was chasing during his slump, which was a big factor in his success.

Barger is continuing this success this spring, up to a 148 wRC+ so far, however the more intriguing development is how he is doing it. Statcast is measuring his O-Swing% at 21.3 per cent which ranks in the 83rd percentile, meaning that he is doing a very good job at laying off pitches out of the strike zone. He is also continuing to post incredible batted ball metrics. This combination of power hitting and discipline makes Barger a prime candidate to have a big 2026 season.

Varsho will also look to add more offense in 2026 after thriving with the bat in 2025. He was limited to just 71 games in 2025, however despite the limited playing time he was able to hit 20 home runs which is tied for his career high as a Blue Jay. 

Like many other Blue Jays, Varsho saw a jump in bat speed from 2024 to 2025 (73.7 to 75.6) which is crucial in order to hit for power. He posted a .310 ISO in 2025, and while that is likely not a sustainable mark for him, he should still be able to hit for power in 2026.

His 29.5 Pull AIR% in 2025 is the highest of his career and would have ranked ninth in the league if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. He has done this his entire career, as his career mark is at 25.9. It is no coincidence that Varsho’s best power hitting season coincides with the season that he had the most pulled balls in the air.

He has also been hot this spring, posting a .442/.489/.953 slash line with a 263 wRC+. While this mark is obviously not sustainable, it is a good sign that the power is continuing to show.

These two hitting in the second and fourth spots in the lineup, around Springer and Guerrero Jr. is one of the best ways that the Blue Jays will be able to maximize lineup production from the top end hitters. The Blue Jays do have other players with expectations to produce quality offense, such as Alejandro Kirk and Kazuma Okamoto, however they may not be as effective in these spots.

Kirk is not enough of a power hitter, hitting just 15 home runs with a .140 ISO in 2025, making his more contact oriented profile a better fit hitting fifth or sixth in the lineup. Okamoto projects well, however the tools of Barger and Varsho favour them to hit in these spots.

The Blue Jays have clearly considered this type of lineup construction, as they have put out lineups with Varsho hitting second and Barger hitting cleanup, however they have also put out lineups with Lukes hitting second, so they may not be fully decided. Regardless, it makes all the sense in the world to allow Varsho and Barger to be in position to provide the most value possible to the Blue Jays lineup and hit in the top spots in the order.