Why Daulton Varsho could easily outperform his projected numbers

Daulton Varsho is a known quantity on defense, having won a Gold Glove in 2024 for his excellent work in center field. His work at the plate, on the other hand, is a little bit more of a mystery.

Throughout his career, he's actually been exactly average, with a 99 wRC+ that's a few base hits away from reaching triple digits. However, he's fluctuated between a near-All-Star and a light-hitting platoon threat, with no real pattern to follow.

Last year, though, he seemed to turn a corner, despite missing more than half the season with hamstring and shoulder injuries. In just 71 games, he hit a rock solid .238/.284/.548, good for a career-high 123 wRC+. And he's more than backing that performance up this spring, crushing the ball to the tune of a .432/.475/.946 slash line. His 256 wRC+ and four home runs are among the best figures in the Grapefruit League.

And yet, despite his impressive 2025 season and otherworldly exhibition slate, the 29-year-old isn't getting a ton of love from the projection systems.

Daulton Varsho's plate approach doesn't do his offense justice

Take a gander at any projection model you like — no matter where you look, Varsho isn't predicted to eclipse league-average offensive numbers in 2026. The most favorable prognostication (from ZiPS) foretells a .227/.290/.459 batting line to go along with a 105 wRC+.

It's not hard to see why that is; Varsho's plate approach isn't exactly Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-like in its precision. He's got a habit of striking out too much and not walking enough to offset it, hence his low overall on-base numbers and troublesome contact rates.

Every model takes those numbers seriously, especially for someone set to turn 30 in July. But Varsho gets by with big-time bat speed and a knack for getting the barrel of the bat on the ball, which won't disintegrate over night.

Perhaps a more targeted approach at the plate would help matters. He finally started crushing off-speed pitches in 2025, but that came at the cost of some valuable production against fastballs. He saw only 3.64 pitches per plate appearance last year, a number he can easily improve upon by being more selective in what he chooses to attack. For someone with his pedigree, that wouldn't be too difficult of a change to implement.

It's also worth noting that Varsho is entering a prove-it year, with just one lone season remaining on his contract before free agency. With a big campaign at the plate — combined with his exemplary defense — the outfielder could be a candidate for a nine-figure deal. Falter like he has in the past, though, and Varsho will be lucky to sniff any offers longer than a couple of seasons.

With that chip on his shoulder and some clear goals for improvement, Varsho should be able to thrash the predictions that have been laid out for him. Heck, he did so last year while hurt. Why can't he do it again now that he's healthy?