Why Dylan Cease could have his best season yet with the Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays got their man. In the past, this Toronto front office was apt to sit back and weight for the market to develop, and try to have the player and their agent come as close to the Blue Jays terms as they could get.

It was often a source of frustration for Blue Jays fans to see a big market team like Toronto try to operate like a smaller market, since they clearly had the cash to spend, but would rarely look to splurge. That all changed earlier this week when the Blue Jays weren't waiting around for anyone and signed Dylan Cease to a seven year contract, worth a reported $210 million.

Cease, who will be 30-years-old at the start of next season, has long been a reliable arm, sometimes one of the best pitchers in the game. And there are reasons to believe he could have his best year yet with the Blue Jays in 2026.

Why Dylan Cease could have his best season yet with the Blue Jays

Cease hasn't missed a start since coming into the league in 2019, going 65-58 with a 3.88 ERA in 188 career starts. He's had at least 214 strikeouts or more in five straight seasons, one of only four active pitchers who can say they have accomplished that in their careers.

The others being Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw. But along with all those strikeouts also comes a lot of walks. In fact Cease had the third highest walk rate among qualified starters in 2025, with a 3.80 BB/9. But two guys near him in those numbers are former Blue Jays Yusei Kikuchi and Robbie Ray.

The importance of that note is that both Kikuchi and Ray had high walk rates before signing with Toronto and both of them managed to bring those down numbers down during their time in Toronto, while working with Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker. Ray and Kikuchi also benefited from having an elite pitch framer behind the plate in Alejandro Kirk - the same guy who will be behind the dish for Toronto in 2026.

He'll also have much better defense behind him. The San Diego Padres allowed a .323 BABIP when Cease was on the mound, while the MLB average was .291. The Padres also had a -0.5 defensive fWAR and a fielding run value grade of -1, while the Blue Jays topped the league with a 38.7 fWAR and fielding run value of 44. Blue Jays pitchers also had an above league average BABIP of .286.

He's also working on developing a third pitch that he can really rely on. While he threw six different pitches in 2025, he was mainly a fastball-slider combo pitcher, throwing both of those pitches 41% of the time. He threw the knuckle curveball 8%, the sinker 5%, the sweeper 3% and the changeup 1%. The Blue Jays and Cease both know that he'll have to work on developing a third pitch that he really trusts in order for him to have sustained success. That pitch could be the split finger.

Between Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage, Cease could end up mastering a splitfinger fastball of his own. In 2025, Gausman had an xBA of .193 on that pitch, with an average exit velocity of 82.8. In Yesavage's three regular season star's he had an xBA of .135 on that pitch, with an average exit velocity of 87.2.

Cease had a HR//FB rate of 11.9% which ranked 39th among qualified pitchers, while he only induced groundballs 36.6% of the time, which ranked 48th. If he can develop a splitter that breaks down low in the zone he could see an increase in the number of hitters he gets to roll over on that pitch.

Cease has never made an All-Star game, but he has finished top four in Cy Young voting twice. He's never led the league in strikeouts, but he hasn't had less than 214 strikeouts in a full season. He's made at least 32 starts in every season over the last five years, but he's never reached 200 innings pitched. With an improved defense behind him, a better way to attack the strike zone, and an elite pitch framer receiving those pitches, there's no reason to think Cease can't find another level with Toronto in 2026.