How Daulton Varsho can live up to his "top 10" billing in 2026

A big year being predicted for Daulton Varsho.
Oct 13, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho (5) makes a diving catch in the third inning against the Seattle Mariners during game two of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
Oct 13, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho (5) makes a diving catch in the third inning against the Seattle Mariners during game two of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

MLB Network recently released its top 10 players at each position in baseball, as well as its fan-voted rankings, both of which ranked Daulton Varsho as one of MLB's 10 best center fielders, coming in at eighth and fifth, respectively.

On a per-game basis, the 29-year-old had the best offensive season of his career, launching 20 home runs in just 71 games, but struggled with injury and had an extremely up-and-down postseason. As he enters the upcoming year as a pending free agent, what does he need to do to solidify his ranking at his position?

How Daulton Varsho can live up to his "top 10" billing in 2026

While the offence is the part of Varsho's game that has the widest variety of outcomes, it's worth noting that his elite glove should make him a top 10 center fielder even with a below-average bat. Over the past four seasons, his 50 outs above average ranks first among all Major League outfielders, and in 2025, he racked up 5.0 bWAR despite posting a below-league-average OPS+ of 96.

By pretty much any metric you can find, Varsho is one of, if not the best, defensive outfielders in baseball, which just about automatically makes him a top 10 center fielder. The real question is what it would take to put him in the top end of the group, with the likes of Julio Rodríguez, Wyatt Langford and Pete Crow-Armstrong.

The obvious answer to this is to do what he did at the plate in 2025 over the course of a full season. Last year, Varsho put up a .548 SLG, over 150 points higher than his previous career average, and would have been on pace for 45 homers and 125 RBI over 162 games. Those last two numbers in particular, but really all three of them, are almost certainly unattainable across a full season, but if he can maintain even 70 percent on that production, he could be one of the most valuable players in the American League.

Throughout his first two years in Toronto, Varsho struggled at the plate, batting just .217 with a 90 OPS+, which lowered his ceiling and overall production. His OPS+ shot up to 122 in 2025, and while the aforementioned power numbers may not be replicable, it's very possible that, under new hitting coach David Popkins, Varsho has made a substantial change to his offensive game that can translate to long-term results.

A sharp uptick in his barrel rate and expected slugging in 2025 per Baseball Savant could be a sign that he's found some more consistent power in his game, which would help balance out his high swing-and-miss-heavy approach. A 45 home run season may be a bit of a reach, but there's no reason to believe he couldn't channel this power into a 30+ homer campaign, which would do wonders alongside a full healthy season from Anthony Santander.

Julio Rodríguez, the seeming consensus number one center fielder in MLB, is coming off a year where he hit 32 home runs, posted a 133 OPS+ and played elite defense on his way to a 6.8 WAR season. That's very unlikely to happen for Varsho, but is it unreasonable to imagine that in a contract year, he could hit 30+ homers, post an OPS+ in the 105-115 range, continue to be one of baseball's best defender and have a 5+ WAR season?

If Daulton Varsho can do that in 2026, he won't just be a top 10 center fielder in baseball, but easily top five and one of the biggest free agents on the market.

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