Which Blue Jays starter will get the nod on Opening Day?

The Blue Jays begin their 2025 campaign at home, facing off against the Baltimore Orioles on March 27th. While the Blue Jays roster is beginning to round into form, neither team has announced who their Opening Day starter will be.

The Blue Jays have used three different Opening Day starters over the past five season. Hyun-jin Ryu got the nod in 2020 and 2021, while Alek Manoah started the season in 2023, and José Berríos took the ball in 2022 and 2024. Berríos, along with Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Kevin Gausman are all realistic candidates to take the hill on Opening Day day for Toronto this year.

Which of the four should start on opening day?

Let's start with Bassitt, who has one career Opening Day start under his belt, which came in 2021 while he was in Oakland.

The now 36-year-old took a back step last season. He pitched to a 4.16 ERA, which is the highest ERA he's had in a full season. In addition, Bassitt saw a major drop in his expected ERA, expected batting average against and walk percentage.

Bassitt appears to be heading in the wrong direction, so it doesn't make sense for him to get the Opening Day start.

Next up is Max Scherzer, who has made seven career Opening Day starts (six with the Nationals, one with the Mets). Scherzer put up solid numbers last season in limited starts with the Texas Rangers (3.95 ERA) but his advanced metrics took a major dip, even if he didn't make enough starts to qualify for the Baseball Savant leaderboards.

Specifically, his expected ERA, expected batting average against and strikeout percentage were the lowest they have ever been.

Although he has plenty of experience on Opening Day, it's clear that Scherzer's best days are behind him.

With that in mind, it seems that either José Berríos or Kevin Gausman will likely open up the season for the Blue Jays.

Both pitchers have been consistent as Blue Jays, and they both have compelling cases to get the nod.

Berríos has opened a season four times (twice with the Twins and twice with the Blue Jays), while Gausman has two Opening Day starts to his name (one with the Orioles, one with the Giants).

Funny enough, Gausman's lone opening day start for the Orioles came against the Blue Jays. He lasted 5 1/3 innings and gave up two earned runs with four strikeouts in a Baltimore win.

Last season, all signs pointed to Gausman making his first Opening Day start as a Blue Jay since he was coming off a fantastic 2023 season where he finished third in CY Young voting. However, he experienced some shoulder fatigue in spring training, which opened the door for Berríos to make the start.

Now Berríos definitely wasn't undeserving, as he had a solid 2023 season. He pitched to a 3.65 ERA in 189 2/3 innings, and registered 184 strikeouts.

When it comes to this year's decision, Berríos is coming off a better season compared to Gausman, but you can still make the case for both of them. Since Gausman was unable to make the Opening Day start last year, we think there is a solid chance that he'll take the mound on Opening Day against his former team.

The LSU product should be motivated after a slightly disappointing 2024 campaign, making him perfect candidate to begin the season for Toronto.